Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction: Going Back to the Well for Another NRFI
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction: Going Back to the Well for Another NRFI
1u - Marlins/Giants NRFI @ -120 (Bet $120 to win $100)
For those who are unaware, this stands for “No Run First Inning”. I like this bet once again today. I’m a fan of both Carlos Rodon and Pablo Lopez and think they both should be able to get us the three outs needed on both sides. Both of these pitchers have great history vs the 1-4 batters of the opposing batters of the lineup. Let's dive into the exact numbers and why I think history should repeat itself.
The Giants' 1-4 hitters are Yastrzemski, Belt, Ruf and Peterson, who combine for 3-20 against Lopez. Lopez hit his end of this prop in 16/20 games. On his end, this is an 80% hit rate and two of the losses were against the eventual World Series champs, the Atlanta Braves. Rodon hit his end of the prop in 20/24 games, which is good for an 83% hit rate last season. The Marlins lineup does not scare me either, as their top four have batted 5-for-21 against Rodon lifetime. Both pitchers have incredible hit rates in general and history vs the batters they’ll face.
NRFI bets are becoming more and more popular and this feels like the year where the books will adjust the odds accordingly. I will consistently make these the first look of the day each time because I know these have an undeniable edge to them. If you don’t mind laying juice I also like the bet on FanDuel “tie after 1st inning” for -135. The added upside to this bet is that it doesn’t have to be an NRFI but you could win if the 1st inning ends 1-1 or 2-2 for some added security. This bet just feels really nice again and I don’t mind running it back. No shame in taking the same bet two days in a row if it still holds value. Let's keep this NRFI streak alive!