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Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs prediction and pick for Saturday. I love when bad teams win when they shouldn’t. The odds of them winning two games in a row are so unlikely so makes me feel more confident fading them.

Milwaukee Brewers vs Chicago Cubs Prediction: Fading A Bad Team After A Win

2-Leg Same-Game Parlay @ -135 (Bet $135 to win $100)

  • Leg 1: Brewers ML
  • Leg 2: MIL o2.5 runs

The normal line for Brewers ML is -165 on most books right now which is even too much for me. I feel like pairing it with them to score 3+ runs feels super safe. Milwaukee’s main total runs prop is set at 4.5 without juice on either side so it’s very possible they score 5 which would blow what we need out of the water. I really love that Chicago upset Milwaukee on opening day, no one saw it coming and it will now scare people off of Milwaukee today. This is where we swoop in and bet with our brains instead of our hearts. Did Milwaukee look good last game? Of course not, but I’ve been gambling long enough to not overreact to one game and trust my coins with the better team.

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I was high on Corbin Burnes against this Cubs lineup and he disappointed, but that doesn’t mean Brandon Woodruff will do the same thing. He is such an electric talent and I expect him to help lead this Brewers club to their first win. Woodruff pitched 28 innings vs the Cubs last year over 5 starts and had an impressive 0.64 ERA. Chicago had bad stats vs Burnes too and they looked alright but I really don’t believe the offseason moves they made will be enough for me not to want to pick on them again.

If you can’t tell already I’m a believer in going back to the well. As soon as you start betting with emotions and making a “banned list” is when you strip yourself of long-term profits because you’re holding grudges against teams who can’t replicate their performances on a daily basis. Brewers just are a better team from head to toe. I’m usually a first 5 innings type of guy but I actually prefer the full game ML here because I believe Milwaukee has a vastly superior bullpen with arms like Josh Hader and Devin Williams. I’m gladly backing Milwaukee here and if they somehow score 2 runs or less in a win I’ll just have to live with it.

Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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