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MLB expert and handicapper Justin Perri is back with his best bet for Sunday Night Baseball as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox.

Best MLB Bet for Sunday: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox

The Yankees and Red Sox will conclude their first series of their year in front of a national audience for Sunday Night Baseball. The Yankees have won both of the opening games and as a gigantic Yankee fan, I couldn't be happier. However, that's not why we're here. Let's talk about why I think tonight should be a great place to play Under 4.5 Runs in the First 5 (F5) innings.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: April 10, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:08 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

Click Here for Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds

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Yankees vs. Red Sox Line Movement

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction

If you read my first OddsChecker play you heard me talking a little bit about the weather and how it correlates to baseball. That's not really going to go anywhere, so buckle up. It's going to be a clear 44°F in the Bronx tonight as Jordan Montgomery takes the mound. Monty had one of the best change-ups in the game last year, only three pitchers in the majors had a better swinging strike rate on the pitch than him. It's going to be especially tough to hit tonight in the cool air, the lower temperature essentially gives off-speed pitches more bite. We've seen guys with similar profiles like Kyle Hendricks look nasty in cold air already this season, so I expect Montgomery to deal against a Red Sox team that is batting .194 with 23 strikeouts in 72 at-bats so far in 2022.

Tanner Houck will be on the mound for the Sox, and this kid had some nasty peripheral stats last year. His Average Exit Velocity, Expected Weighted On Base Average (xwOBA), expected ERA, and strikeout rate were all in the top 18% of baseball last year. Entering just his third season, Houck is probably going to keep improving. He only started against the Yankees once in 2021, but struck out eight and only allowed a single run. He has one of the better sliders in the game and if it's a night where he gets it working, the Yankees may have to wait for the second half of the game to score.

I'm not going to bother getting the bullpens involved on a Sunday night, I know too much about the Yankees relievers to want to pay up for Under 9 at -120. So, given my affinity for these pitchers in tonight's poor hitting environment, I'll be putting my money on this game to have four or fewer runs after the fifth inning concludes.

Here are some other quick nuggets, for those inclined. April was Jordan Montgomery's best month by WHIP last year and the Yankees were a below-average team in Weighted Runs Created against right-handed pitching in 2021. Houck, of course, is a righty. Good luck!

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Pick

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Article Author


Justin applies his background in physics and advanced probability statistics to sports betting through developing and analyzing predictive data models. Focusing on College Basketball and Major League Baseball, Justin’s approach is finding agreement between traditional handicapping methods and statistical analysis. He has appeared on CBS SportsLine and The Early Edge, and also co-hosts Market Movers on YouTube.


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