New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction: Will the Yankees Earn the Series Sweep?

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction: Will the Yankees Earn the Series Sweep?

The New York Yankees have won the first two games of the first series of the season against the Boston Red Sox. It's bragging rights for now but with so much more to play for this season, it's just that.

The Red Sox have the opportunity to salvage the series and earn a win against the Yankees in tonight's showdown. With two above-average pitchers on the mound, what can we expect in the first ESPN game of the season?

Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for the third game of the series between the Boston Red Sox and the New York Yankees.

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Yankees vs. Red Sox Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: April 10, 2022
• Game Time: 7:08 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ESPN

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Yankees vs. Red Sox Injury Report

Red Sox

Questionable: P Matt Barnes (Back)

Out: OF Jarren Duran (Illness)

Yankees

None of Importance

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Yankees vs. Red Sox Line Movement

Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction

The right-handed "Chris Sale", Tanner Houck will get his first start of the season for the Boston Red Sox. The right-handed pitcher had a 3.21 xFIP last season with 30% strikeouts and 6.5% walks while earning 48.5% ground balls. Last year, he was able able to limit line drives to 19.5% in over 320 plate appearances.

Against Houck, Lefties had a wOBA of .296 and righties had a wOBA of .238. Both of those numbers are above average for the pitcher. It was also hard for batters to hit for much power against Houck, even with Houck pitching in the American League East. Houck held lefty batters to an ISO of .132 and .089 ISO to righties.

New York's lineup is always solid on paper. So far, things are clicking. With the projected lineup, the Yankees had an ISO of .182 and a wOBA of .326 against righties last season. That's a bit above the average and not terrible at all. Josh Donaldson, Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, and Joey Gallo all smacked righties around last season with ISO numbers at .199 or greater. However, the projected lineup also struck out 22.7% of the time. Although, the same line walked 11% of the time. So you get the best of both worlds.

The Yankees will pitch Jordan Montgomery, who is a left-handed pitcher that could become the second-best pitcher for New York this season. He had an xFIP of 4.15 with 24.7% strikeouts and 7.3% walks. Those numbers got the job done. If you're a lefty, watch out. Montgomery is going to be hard to hit. Montgomery held lefties to a .238 wOBA and an ISO of .079. Although righties had a little more success, Montgomery still held righties to a wOBA of .313 and an ISO of .140. He also struck out righties 35.1% of the time in 171 plate.

Against Montgomery, you'd have to expect the Red Sox to send out a right-handed heavy lineup. By doing that, the Red Sox would eliminate lefties like Alex Verdugo and Jackie Bradley Jr. After all, Rafael Devers could be the only left-hander in the lineup for the Red Sox when it comes to the lineup.

Those two lefties were so bad last season against lefties. Bradley Jr. had .079 ISO with a wOBA of .249 and Alex Verdugo had a .059 ISO with a wOBA of .249 against lefties last season. It's not worth having those two in the lineup at all.

So watch the lineup and if there are three lefties in the lineup for the Red Sox, it's only going to help Montgomery in this one. I'll ride the under in the first five innings and back the two above-average pitchers.

New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Pick

• Under 5 First Five (-120) (Bet $120 to Win $100)

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