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We have a full MLB slate today as the final series of the opening weekend are coming to a close and I found some value on some longshot homerun props today. Let's get to it.
ANALYSIS

Sunday's MLB Home Run Best Bets: Can Darin Ruf Tank One Today?

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Darin Ruf +650 (Bet $100 to Win $650)

The first home run prop I am rolling with today is going to be Darin Ruf for the San Fransisco Giants at +650. Ruf burst onto the scene last year with San Fransisco as he belted 16 homers in just 117 games and did a lot of his damage against left-handed pitching. Ruf is a big power bat who loves to hunt fastballs and today he will be going up against Trevor Rogers of the Marlins, who is the definition of a power left-handed pitcher.

Rogers has a plus fastball that can get up to 97 and if Ruf barrels one up, it could go a long way. Ruf isn't an all or nothing hitter and frequently takes his walks so I think that is one reason this line is so high but I still think there is solid value here on Ruf at +650 given his ability to hit the ball out of the park even with limited opportunities and sporadic at-bats.

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Xander Bogaerts +430 (Bet $100 to Win $430)

The second home run prop I am rolling with today is going to be Xander Bogaerts of the Boston Red Sox at +430. Bogaerts had had a solid start to the season going 3-8 but hasn't hit a long ball yet. Historically he has done very well against the Yankees and hit a home run against them on the biggest stage in the play-in game last season in the playoffs. Yankee Stadium also has short porches to both right and left field so if Boagaerts can get one in the air, it has a good shot to go.

Tonight he will face Jordan Montgomery for the Yankees and will get a favorable Lefty vs Righty matchup. Bogaerts is a big game player and I think there is a lot of value on him to go yard tonight on Sunday Night Baseball as the Red Sox need this game to avoid an opening weekend sweep.

Article Author

NCAABNBAMLB

Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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