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It's a smaller slate this evening but my focus is on two guys who have fairly longshot odds but I think are much more likely to hit a home run than their odds indicate. Let's get to my favorite home run bets for Monday.

Monday's MLB Home Run Best Bets: Will Dansby Swanson Go Deep Tonight?

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Dansby Swanson +535 (Bet $100 to Win $535)

The first home run prop I am rolling with is Dansby Swanson for the Atlanta Braves at +535. Swanson had a great power year last season and was in the top offensive ranks for most shortstops in the league. Last season he belted 27 home runs and has always had above average power numbers as a shortstop. Swanson is off to a slow start this year as he is just 2-2-12 on the young season but I think this is a perfect breakout spot for him.

Swanson has always hit better at home and gets a favorable matchup against a left-handed pitcher for the Nats tonight. Josh Rogers allowed 7 homers in 35 innings last season and I am not going to be surprised if he gives up 2-3 tonight to this potent Braves lineup. Let's hope Swanson is one of them

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Jorge Polanco +520 (Bet $100 to Win $520)

The second home run prop I am rolling with tonight is going to be Jorge Polanco at +520. Polanco is one of the better pure hitters on the Twins and does not always swing for the fences so I have to imagine that is why this number is so high but I love the value on him tonight. Polanco also belted his first home run of the season which was a moonshot in their last game so hopefully he caries that sweet stroke over to this game and belts another one.

Polanco will face Chris Flexen of the Mariners who had a great season but pitched much better at home. We saw the ball fly yesterday in Minnesota and if Polanco can get one in the air to that short porch in right field, I think he has a great shot to put another one out tonight as well.

Article Author


Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.


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