San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Prediction: Will Nick Martinez Perform in First Start Since 2017?

San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Prediction: Will Nick Martinez Perform in First Start Since 2017?

The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants both feasted on poor competition to start the season. The Padres defeated the Diamondbacks 3-1 in the first series of the season while the Giants took care of business against the Marlins 2-1 over the weekend.

Now a new series will begin between two teams that are going to be contenders for the NL West division. Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Monday's game between the San Diego Padres and the San Francisco Giants.

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Giants vs. Padres Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

• Date: April 11, 2022
• Game Time: 9:45 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLBN

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Giants vs. Padres Injury Report

Padres

Out: SS Fernando Tatis (Wrist), P Blake Snell (Groin)

Giants

Out: 2B Tommy La Stella (Achilles), 3B Evan Longoria (Finger), OF LaMonte Wade (Knee)

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Giants vs. Padres Line Movement

Giants vs. Padres Prediction

Tonight's game will be a little more special for the Padres. Nick Martinez will take the mound for the first time in the Major Leagues since 2017. Martinez pitched in Japan and the Olympics and made his way back into the MLB to start for the Padres. Everyone loves these feel-good stories but the Giants won't let up because of it. Martinez is 31-years-old and still has many more years left to play the game if he can stick around in the majors. I don't have any analytics on Martinez but we do have some stats to look at.

In Japan, Martinez went 21-22 with a 3.02 ERA through three seasons. He struck out 7.1 batters per nine innings and walked 2.8 batters per nine innings. He wasn't overpowering in Japan based on those numbers but it seemed like his command was fine and he was making pitches when he needed to.

In 2017, in the MLB, Martinez went 3-8 with a 5.66 ERA along with a WHIP of 1.37 in 23 games and 111.1 innings. That was enough to make him rethink the MLB and leave the league for opportunities elsewhere.

It's also not going to be easy for Martinez tonight. The Giants smacked righties dating back to last season and continue to platoon guys for matchup advantages. This is why the Giants had the best record in baseball last year. The Giants' projected lineup had an ISO of .201 with a wOBA of .337 last season against righties. There's reason to believe Martinez could win some battles and earn strikeouts against the Giants but overall he will struggle to earn ground balls and could give up plenty of line-drive contact when San Francisco makes contact.

On the other hand, San Francisco will send out left-hander Alex Wood who started off last season red hot. Wood finished 2021 with a 3.65 xFIP last season. He had 25.9% strikeouts and 6.8% walks on the season while inducing 48.6% ground balls. Lefties hit a wOBA of .296 with an ISO of just .104 and righties hit a wOBA of .283 with an ISO of .130.

Hitting for power against Wood isn't easy. The Padres’ projected lineup hit a .142 ISO with a wOBA of .317 against lefties. An average ISO would be about .170. The Padres had a .142 against lefties with the projected lineup.

The good news for the Padres is that the Padres only struck out 18.3% of the time against lefties last season using the projected lineup but the lack of power is still the main concern. You're not going to win games without home runs in this day and age. It should be noted that only Will Myers had a .200 ISO or better against lefties last season.

San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants Pick

• Giants (-145) (Bet $145 to Win $100)

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