Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros Prediction: Can the Astros Find More Success on the Road?
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros Prediction: Can the Astros Find More Success on the Road?
The Astros continue their road trip with a two-game series at Chase Field against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Astros left Anaheim with three wins and look to improve to 4-1 tonight against the Diamondbacks. Arizona is riding a three-game losing streak entering tonight and will look to right the ship with another home game. You can catch this game on Bally Sports at 9:40 p.m. EST. Can the Diamondbacks end their losing streak, or will the Astros find more success on the road?
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros Prediction
The Diamondbacks entered the year with low expectations. Only two MLB teams (the Pirates and Orioles) had a lower expected win total than the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks went 52-110 last year and tied the Orioles as the worst team in the league. It doesn't look like they're on a much different track this year, and they would be 0-4 if it weren't for a walk-off three-run homer from Seth Beer in the first game of the year. Now, the Diamondbacks face the 2021 AL champions, the Houston Astros.
Madison Bumgarner will get the start today, and it looks like his career is entering the home stretch. In 2021, he went 7-10 with a 4.67 earned run average. Bumgarner actually pitched okay in his first start, but he only went three innings and gave up four walks in those three. His command appears to be fading, and his last two seasons were the only two years in his career that his earned run average was above 4.00. His WHIP is also increasing in recent years, further showing his command is fading. He now faces a team that is very patient at the plate. Yordan Alvarez, Martin Maldonado, and José Siri are some of the best in the lineup at drawing walks. The offense has also not been there for the Diamondbacks. Their fifteen total hits through their first four games is the lowest of any team in the league.
The Astros have gotten off to a great start on the road, picking up three wins in Anaheim, and now enter Chase Field after a day off. This means the bullpen and hitter should be fresh. Although hopefully, the Astros don't need much help from their bullpen tonight. Luis Garcia went at least five innings in ten of his twelve regular-season starts after June last year. Garcia had an excellent debut in his rookie season last year and finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting. He posted a 3.3 earned run average in 2021 and had a 3.3 K/BB rate. I expect him to go at least through the first five here today in his first start of the season.
The bats have started right where they left off last season for Houston. They led the league in runs last year and have 20 through their first four games this year. The Astros lost Correa to the Twins, but besides that, they have a similar order to that scary lineup from last year. They have perhaps the scariest 1-6 spots in the league, behind the Blue Jays and Dodgers. The Astros appear to be the same team from last year, and with patient batters in the box, I expect them to have a successful night against Madison Bumgarner.
Today, the pitching matchup favors the Astros, and the offensive advantage certainly goes to the Astros. Even if Garcia were to give up 2-3 runs in the first five, I do not doubt that this lineup can put up four on Bumgarner. Sure, Bumgarner looked decent in this first outing, but that was against a Padres lineup missing Tatis. The Astros also crushed lefties last year. Garcia should go through the first five here, so I'm not worried about the bullpen. We're getting a great line on the top-scoring offense last season against a veteran who looks to be on the decline. Take the short line in the first five innings.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Houston Astros Pick
Pick: Astros First Five -.5 @ (-106) (Bet $106 to win $100)
Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.