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The New York Mets take on the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. Jason Radowitz is here to break down the game and share his pick.
ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction: How Will Zack Wheeler Perform in His First Start?

The New York Mets have blown back-to-back games in the 8th inning and are now 3-2 on the season. Injuries continue to pile up on New York and each gameplan daily is being switched on the fly.

Now the Mets will have to take on former New York superstar Zack Wheeler, who nearly won the NL Cy Young award last season.

Can the Mets push this Philadelphia series to a split tonight? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Tuesday's game between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies.

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Mets vs. Phillies Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: April 12, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:45 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLBN

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Mets vs. Phillies Injury Report

Mets

Questionable: P Trevor May (Arm)

Out: P Edwin Diaz (Personal)

Phillies

Questionable: 2B Scott Kingery (Shoulder), P Corey Knebel (Illness)

Out: OF Mickey Moniak (Hand)

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Phillies vs. Mets Line Movement

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets Prediction

Tylor Megill will make his second start of the season for the Mets tonight. In his first start, Megill was tremendous in his Opening Day debut. Megill threw six strikeouts and allowed no runs in five innings against the Washington Nationals. The right-hander also induced seven ground balls to just five fly balls and gave up three hits in five innings. Many analysts already caught on but it's clear that Megill could break out this season. After all, he had 26.1% strikeouts last season. His success isn't random. So far, Philadelphia's lineup has been underwhelming. Eventually, against righties, the Phillies will be stellar. But for now, it's lagging. As a projected lineup the Phillies dominated right-handed pitching last season, hitting a .253 ISO and wOBA of .366. The Phillies do have a couple of strikeout candidates against righties but overall, have a lineup that can be deadly when they finally get hot.

Meanwhile, Zack Wheeler will get the start against his former team the New York Mets. Wheeler missed his first scheduled start due to injury so this will be Wheeler’s first start of the season. Wheeler had a 2.78 ERA last season and was one of the finalists for the NL Cy Young award last season.

Last season, against the Mets, Wheeler had a 2.10 ERA in five starts while pitching 34.1 innings and allowing batters to hit just .216. He struck out 37 batters and walked just six batters against the Mets. Clearly, it's going to be a tough night for the Mets. As a whole last season, Wheeler had an xFIP of 2.96 with 29.1% strikeouts and just 5% walks along with 51.3% ground balls. Overall, the Mets are likely going to perform better against lefties this season. With so much new talent and former guys starting to provide a little bit more this season, the Mets could be much better on both sides. But for now, only Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar had an above a .200 ISO against righties last year.

The only way for the Mets to stay in this game and score runs will be to make Wheeler work. The Mets will need to be patient at the plate and force Wheeler out of the game early. By the time the Mets are able to do that, five innings will be up.

Give me the under 4.5 in the first five innings in this one.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

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Article Author

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Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.

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