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Wednesday night the Baltimore Orioles host the Milwaukee Brewers. Handicapper Ben Rajavuori breaks down the final game of this three-game series and gives us his best bet.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Milwaukee Brewers Best Bet: Will the Orioles Keep It Close?

Yesterday, we hit the first five bet on the Astros, thanks to Jose Siri. That brings our MLB record to 3-1 on article plays under Oddschecker. Tonight, we will ride another first five bet in Baltimore. The Brewers and Orioles will settle a rubber match in the third game of the series tonight after the Orioles took the first and the Brewers took the second game last night. Today's pitching matchup will pit right-handed ace, Corbin Burnes, against left-hander John Means.

Orioles vs. Brewers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: April 13, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:05 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MASN, BSWI

Click Here for Orioles vs. Brewers Odds

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Orioles vs. Brewers Line Movement

Baltimore Orioles vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

John Means had a successful outing in his first start of the season against the Rays, going four innings with only one earned run and one walk. Means was one of the Oriole's best pitchers last year and had his best career year in his first four last season. He went 2021 with a 3.61 earned run average and only allowed a .263 OBP to opposing batters. Means brought that success into his first start of the year and now looks to continue his success against a Brewers team that has struggled over the first five so far this year.

The Brewers have not been doing well against opposing starters this year. In the first five of each game, they have six total runs. That's 25 innings, so the Brewers are averaging 1.2 runs over the first five so far this year. The Brewers, as a result, are 0-5 on the first five -.5 line this year. The Orioles are similarly bad but picked up a win or tied in the first two games of this series, even with the pitching disadvantage. Now, they get the chance to do the same today with their best pitcher on the mound.

In his first outing, Corbin Burnes uncharacteristically gave up three walks and three earned runs in five innings of work. Burnes, coming off a Cy Young award in 2021, will look to have a much more controlled second outing. It's hard this early in the season to tell if he's regressing from last season a bit, but you can't judge off just one outing. I am backing the Orioles in the first five here because we can get half a run against an offense that is struggling as much as, if not more than, the Orioles.

Both teams are neck and neck in batting average this year, with Milwaukee sitting 22nd with a .213 team average and the Orioles sitting at 23rd with a .207 team average. The Orioles also had to face a notoriously tricky pitching rotation in the Rays in their first series of the year and on the road. Last year, the Orioles had just a .652 OPS on the road but jumped to a .760 OPS at home. This isn't surprising, considering a team's VMI (Visual Memory Index) is always better at home since it's your own park, but it means they will bat better against Burnes in Camden Yards than they would at American Family Field.

This pick tonight is mostly a fade of the Brewers bats. With just 1.2 first five runs average over their first five games, I love that we can get a half run and win even with a tie in this spot. The Orioles have one of the worst bullpens in the league, which scared me off of taking the Orioles on the whole game spread or outright. However, with both teams' respective aces taking the mound tonight, I wouldn't be surprised if this game was 0-0 or 1-1 after five tonight. Burnes could struggle again here while he warms up into the season, but even if he doesn't, I don't trust the Brewer's offense to lead, given the way they've been batting over the first five games of the year. Take the half run with the Orioles in the first half here.

Orioles vs. Brewers Pick

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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