San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction: Will We See Runs Early?
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction: Will We See Runs Early?
1u - SD/SF No Runs 2nd Innings/Padres u7.5 runs (-125) (Bet $125 to win $100)
*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*
San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres Prediction
We had to cook up a SGP to reduce the juice here but it looks really good. Let's get into the NRSI aspect of this first for a change. We are disobeying a trend for the Giants because they can’t possibly keep this up. The Giants have scored a second-inning run in four of five games. Some of that is the good fortune of who they face and some of it is a genuinely great middle lineup. Today I don’t see that trend proceeding. They face Sean Manaea who just pitched seven innings of a no-hitter in his opener. Batters on this team are batting a combined .218 against him so he should be dominant.
Logan Webb is the other pitcher who faces the Padres who have failed to score in four of six games. Logan Webb will be their most difficult matchup so far on the season. Webb looked dominant in his opening start and although some of these Padres have good career stats vs him he is becoming a better pitcher by the day. I’ve been expecting an even bigger leap out of him and I'm happily putting my money where my mouth is. Sometimes in these bets the numbers arent everything given the context of how the numbers got obtained. This game has a seven-run total for a reason.
The books have the odds on this NRSI alone at -170 so we paired with something to bring it down 45 cents. Padres to not score 8+ runs feels safe on a game with a seven-run total. In all 27 of Logan Webb's games last year we have never seen the opposing team score 8+ runs, I don’t figure it will start tonight against the Padres without Tatis. A game with a seven-run total just screams “bet on my nrsi” and who am I to disobey? These are much better odds on what should be a lock of a 2-leg parlay.
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