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As much as I love to get creative and cook up wild plays I also sometimes see value in the simple plays on the books. Tonight is one of those nights and we’re going with a team to win, nothing less complicated than that.

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction: Can You Trust The Reigning Champs?

1u - Atlanta Braves ML (-104) (Bet $104 to win $100)

*Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing*

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San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

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We’re getting really good odds here. Obviously, if we’re betting on this we expected it to have juice. I thought this game would be closer to -130 in favor of Atlanta today. Musgrove and Morton take the mound who are two pitchers I certainly respect but I like our odds. I feel like the Braves are underachieving so far due to some winning games and the Padres have been slightly overachieving without Tatis. I am such a big-time Charlie Morton guy. He looked decent in his opening start allowing 2 runs in just over 5 innings pitched but I think he has the ability to have an even better start tonight, so why do I think that?

Charlie Morton doesn’t have much history vs these batters but in his limited encounters, he has allowed 11 hits in 46 at-bats. That’s only a .239 average. We know that this isn’t some fluke because he’s one of the more consistent pitchers we have in the league. On the other end, we have Joe Musgrove. He’s a great talent but seems to really struggle with these Atlanta bats. Musgrove has allowed 20 hits in 60 at-bats to these hitters which is good for a .333 average but also worth mentioning is his 11 walks. That would make it 31 times on base in 71 at-bats which is good for a .436 OBP which is just wild.

Baseball teams look very different by the day and the last thing I’ll ever do is overreact to one bad game. The Braves had three hits yesterday, people who bet on them are disappointed and won’t touch them. That’s usually when they randomly go off and the offense wakes up. I think this game stays low-scoring but I have the Braves winning this one somewhere in the realm of 4-2. Braves are much better than a 3-4 team and with Morton on the mound, I really like their chances of climbing back to even. I know moneylines aren’t a common thing I do but I bring them out when I see value and I definitely do here.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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