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Sometimes you have to bet against players you really like because the data backs it up. It feels wrong, I feel dirty but we have money to make. Here is my breakdown of the Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays game.

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction: A Number Too Low

1u - Dylan Cease o3.5 hits allowed (-115) (Bet $115 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

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Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

First off, I am a huge Cease fan. I don’t think he gets knocked around today by any means but you can give up four hits and still have a great start. Cease in his opener was only allowed to throw 79 pitches and only gave up two hits. That was against my Tigers though, who struggle against pitchers like Cease who can throw gas. The Rays are enjoying the 5th best batting average in the MLB and should be able to rack up occasional hits here or there. All we need is Cease to throw 6 innings and two of them can be hitless and the other four just allow one base runner. That would be a phenomenal start for him and cash for us.

Tampa Bay has played seven games on the season and six of the seven opposing pitchers have allowed at least four hits. Obviously, Cease much better talent than most but I also think that gives him a longer leash to mess up and remain in the game. If you bet an over a no-name player for hits allowed he could get shelled and you still lose because he’s not established, as for Cease I see him throwing a high pitch count regardless of any potential early game struggles. Four hits is nothing when we bet on this same prop for Gerrit Cole in nearly cashed us in the first quarter.

Cease only has nine battles with these batters and has only allowed two hits. I expect him to go six innings tonight and if that’s the case he will likely face at least 18 batters and if I assume he allows four hits that would be 22 batters. If he allowed four hits through 22 batters that would stll only be a .181 average. We just need the Rays to come out and look decent and this should be sweat-free cash. We might not even need them to get a hit 20% of the time, either get a hit or get out quick. I know fading Cease hurts because he’s such a talent but all the metrics would have him allowing four to five hits here.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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