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MLB expert Mike Spector breaks down tonight's San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians matchup and offers his best bet.

Two well-rested teams meet tonight as the San Francisco Giants and Cleveland Guardians had scheduled off-days on Thursday. The Giants are a sizzling 22-5 in their last 27 games following a day off, while the Guardians have lost their last four such games.

Will those trends continue in this series opener?

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Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Carlos Rodon was brilliant in his Giants debut, allowing one earned run over five innings while striking out 12. Rodon induced 19 swings and misses through the first four innings, which was the most by a Giants pitcher through four innings pitched since the pitch-tracking era began in 2008 (previous highs were 18 by Kevin Gausman and Tim Lincecum). In addition, Rodon's 12 strikeouts in five innings pitched were the most by a Giants pitcher in the first five innings of a game since the franchise moved to San Francisco in 1958.

Yesterday was an anniversary for Rodon, as he threw a one-hitter the year prior. According to High Heat Stats, Rodon had a 4.10 career ERA in 541 IP before that game but has a 2.44 ERA in 132 IP since the no-hitter.

Despite these trends, the Guardians are a dangerous opponent for Rodon, considering their familiarity with him from his time with the White Sox. Rodon was brilliant against Cleveland last year, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.900 WHIP. However, the Guardians have had success against him at some point, as Rodon was 2-5 in the four years before that with a 3.57 ERA in 68.1 combined innings.

Rodon faces a red-hot Jose Ramirez, whose 14 RBI through the season's first six games are the most in Cleveland's franchise history. Ramirez beat Paul Sorrento's previous record of 13 RBI in 1995. In addition to his 14 RBI, Ramirez has 12 hits through six games. Per Elias Sports Bureau, only one other player since 1920 (Pat Burrell in 2005) had that many hits and RBI through the season's first six games.

It is not just Ramirez that is raking for Cleveland's offense, as rookie Steven Kwan has set his own records. Kwan reached base safely 15 times through the first four games, and no other player since 1920 reached base more than 13 times in their first four career games (per ESPN Stats & Info).

Kwan and Ramirez are big reasons why Cleveland has scored a Major League-high 45 runs this season, and their familiarity with Rodon should help the Guardians do their part in scoring enough runs to see this game go over the projected total.

Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants Pick

PICK: Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants OVER 8 Runs (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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