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MLB expert Mike Spector offers his best play on the total for tonight's Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres matchup.

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction: Should We Expect a High-Scoring Affair?

The first two games of this four-game series between the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres have been played with playoff-level intensity in arguably the most high-profile series of the weekend. San Diego has lost three of four games entering tonight, but their lone win in that span was a 12-1 triumph over Atlanta in the series opener. The Braves snapped a two-game losing streak with yesterday’s 5-2 victory and now look to even their record at .500 with a win tonight.

The under is 5-0 in Atlanta’s last five Saturday games dating back to last season and is 5-1 in San Diego’s previous six games following a loss. Will those trends continue in the third game of this series, or are we due for another high-scoring game much like the series opener?

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San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Tonight’s pitching matchup features Atlanta’s Ian Anderson against San Diego’s Nick Martinez. One was instrumental in helping their team win a World Series last year, while the other spent a part of four seasons recently pitching in Japan. So would it shock you to learn that Martinez had by far the better first start of the season than Anderson?

Anderson struggled with command in his first start, issuing five walks (tied a career-high) and allowing five runs in just 2.2 innings against the Reds. Anderson’s struggles may have been largely due to a shortened spring training where he pitched only eight innings and was scratched from his last exhibition start with a blister on his toe.

While Nick Martinez dazzled with a five-inning performance where he allowed one run on five hits against the Giants, we need to see more from Martinez to know this is the kind of performance we should regularly expect from the 31-year-old.

Per the Elias Sports Bureau, Padres catcher Austin Nola has driven in a run in his first six games of the season, which is the longest such streak to start a season in franchise history. He is trying to match a streak set by Giancarlo Stanton in 2014, who produced at least one RBI in each of the first seven games with the Marlins. Nola appeared in a pinch-hit opportunity in last night’s game but will likely earn the start tonight.

Nola is not the only Padres hitter on fire entering this matchup, as Manny Machado is 8-for-10 with three RBI in the first two games of this series. In addition, Atlanta’s Ozzie Albies has homered in each of the first two games and three of four overall.

The over is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last five games as road favorites and has cashed in six of San Diego’s last eight home games. Those are the trends we expect to prevail tonight.

San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Pick

PICK: OVER 8.5 Runs (-105) (Bet $105 to win $100)

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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