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San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves prediction and best bet by handicapper Ben Rajavuori for Sunday night baseball on ESPN.
ANALYSIS

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Best Bet: Can the Padres Salvage the Series?

The Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres will meet for the fourth game of the series tonight, a game in which the Padres need to even the series at two games apiece. The Braves will look to rookie Bryce Elder on the mound to try and take the series, while the Padres will start ace and former Cy Young winner Yu Darvish. Can the Padres even the series with their ace on the mound?

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Padres vs. Braves Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: April 17, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:08 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

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Padres vs. Braves Line Movement

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction

This is not going to be a long breakdown. I'm taking the first five moneyline on the Padres. Yu Darvish came out in his first start of the year and looked great. Then, he was left in perhaps a little too long back on Tuesday when he gave up nine earned runs in just 1.2 innings. Something was obviously off with his stuff that day. It was also a road start, and Yu Darvish has an egregious split on the road versus at home. Last year, Darvish had a 3.38 home earned run average, compared to a 5.54 earned run average on the road. He had 36.1 more innings pitched at home and still had two fewer earned runs allowed with a WHIP under 1.0. I expect Darvish to look a lot more like the pitcher in his first start, where he went six innings with no runs allowed.

Bryce Elder was a fifth-round pick in 2020 and is currently the last starter in the Braves rotation. In his first start of the year, he pitched at home against an underwhelming Nationals team and gave up three runs in 5.2 innings. Elder seems like he is still finding his groove, and even though he gave up no walks in that start, he had a lot of balls in play. He gave up two home runs and a lot of hard-hit balls and could've easily had more earned runs. Now, he faces a hungry Padres team trying to make sure they don't fall below .500.

This is short and sweet. I like the number we can get on Darvish coming off a tough start on the road. I expect him to come out locked in at home after that horrible start, where he has always been a much better pitcher. He has had struggles on the road, but it's his 2022 home debut here. If I can get a rookie who was hit hard in his first start against a former 2020 Cy Young winner at only -130 at home, I'm taking it. With a few injuries in the lineups, this could easily be a 1-0 or 2-1 score after five, but regardless, I would be surprised if the Padres didn't have a lead after the first half here. I don't like the full game line on the Padres as much since the bullpen hasn't looked good and Stammen pitched yesterday.

Padres vs. Braves Pick

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Article Author

NCAABBoxing/MMAMLBNHL

Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.

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