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Yu Darvish got knocked around pretty hard in his first start against the Giants. Will he be able to bounce back tonight against a potent Braves lineup? Let's break it down with my best bet for Padres vs. Braves on Sunday night.

Sunday Night Baseball Prediction: San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Pick

Padres vs. Braves Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: April 17, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:08 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN

Click Here for Padres vs. Braves Odds

Padres vs. Braves Line Movement

San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction

The Braves have gotten off to a bit of a sluggish start this season after winning the world series as they are 5-5 on the young season but the Braves seem to be playing with less heart and intensity compared to last year. This may be due to the loss of Freddie Freeman who was a huge catalyst for them for years or just a simple world series early hangover. They have really struggled to score in the early going of this season which is not something you expected to see. They have only scored over 5 runs twice in 10 games and have been limited to 3 runs or less in 6 total games which is very surprising given the talent in their lineup.

Tonight, they get a favorable matchup against a slumping Yu Darvish... or is it? Darvish has pitched very well at home in his time with the Padres and all of his splits have been better at Petco Park so I actually think we will see a great effort tonight from Darvish. In his first start of the year, his stuff was on but the command wasn't there as he didn't allow a hit through 6 innings versus the D-backs but allowed 4 walks. In his next start, he couldn't escape from trouble as he got pounded by the Giants allowing 9 earned runs in just 1 2/3rds innings. I expect a much better effort from him tonight

Another reason why I really like the Padres in this matchup is the line dynamic as I have mentioned multiple times in the past. You are getting the Padres lined as slightly juiced favorites tonight with Yu Darvish on the mound who got lit up in his last start against the defending world series champions who just won the day before. That is almost an immediate line indicator to bet on the favorite in those types of matchups which has worked out well for the favorites to this point in the year.

The Braves are throwing out Bryce Elder for his second start of the season and he looked very solid in his first appearance as he got the win against Washington and only allowed 3 total earned runs. Another reason why I like the Padres tonight is that I expect Elder to regress a bit and get hit hard by this lineup. Without Tatis, the Padres have struggled a bit offensively, but they are still very capable of putting up runs in bunches and I expect a big game from their stars, Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth.

Another Line indicator I like to look for is when teams are favorites with a starting pitcher with a higher ERA than the opponent's starter. To the naked eye, an underdog with a starting pitcher with a lower ERA than his counterpart is very appealing but does not typically work out well. This also fits for this game as Darvish has nearly an 11 ERA versus Elder who is at 4.76.

With that being said, I am rolling with Padres F5 ML at -127 for 1U and Padres Full Game ML at -120 for 1U as my most confident MLB picks of the night.

Padres vs. Braves Picks

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Article Author


Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.


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