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Betting an under isn’t fun but finding value is. The books overestimated this guy tonight. Here's my best bet for tonight's Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Should We Fade The Lefty Eric Lauer?

Eric Lauer is an interesting talent. He has his moments where he looks outstanding but other outings where he gets shelled. Overall I would say he’s solid but tonight doesn’t seem like a strikeout night for him. I think he should go 5-6 innings and give up only 1-2 runs but I see a lot of outs to contact. Pittsburgh has been a tough team to strike out as of late and has been particularly great against left-handed pitching. , all four left-handed starting pitchers who have faced Pittsburgh thus far have failed to reach 6 strikeouts.

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Eric Lauer Under 5.5 K’s (-130) (Bet $130 to win $100)

*Odds Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing*

But I don’t want to just call Lauer a lefty and not give it any context. Lauer has actually struggled striking out Pirates in general lately. Lauer has failed to strikeout 6 or more Pirates in 7 of 8 games against them lifetime. In those games, he has only averaged 3.75 strikeouts per game and has only even exceeded 5 once, let alone 6. Pittsburgh will be enjoying getting Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes who both crush left-handed pitching. Lauer only has 9 strikeouts in 46 plate appearances by these Pirates bats. If he’s not getting strikeouts in even 20% of his at-bats we can’t expect him to get 6+ tonight.

Betting unders has never been my style but with the shortened Spring Training and the way pitchers have looked thus far I know it has value. If he gets destroyed this a sweat-free cash but the luxury of this bet is that he can genuinely have a good outing and still only strikeout 4-5 batters and get plenty of outs via fly outs or slow rollers. Lauer last year fell short of one K per inning, I don’t see him going 6 full innings tonight and even if he does this could still cash with the Pirates being a negative matchup for him.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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