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MLB expert Justin Perri is here with his prediction and pick for Tuesday night's matchup between Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays.

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction: Can the Rays Get Back on Track?

Tampa Bay opened their season with three straight wins to sweep the Orioles and everyone thought that it was going to be business as usual for the Rays this season. However, since then, they've lost back-to-back series to the A's at home and the White Sox on the road. They've gone 2-6 in their eight most recent games and even opened up this Cubs series with a loss last night. It's been a tough stretch for the Rays but underperformance can lead to big pockets of value in the market and that's exactly what we have here today.

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Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

While it can be hard to bet on a team that has only won twice in their last nine contests, Tampa should not be getting this -115 number. My projections have the line valued at -140, so I'm going to trust my model and grab the Rays on the money line. The Rays have hit left-handed pitching well already this season and tonight will likely be the toughest test of the short season for the Cubs' 26-year-old starter, Justin Steele. Steele looked pristine against the Brewers but Milwaukee can't seem to hit lefties at the moment. I think the Rays get to the Chicago pitcher and win this get-right game.

A final factor at play here is that Chicago is still dealing with the impact of traveling from their recent series in Colorado. I think the Cubs hitters could have some trouble tonight. It's tough to shift from the batters' paradise in the Rockies to the plus pitching environment present tonight at Wrigley. The data is indicating that Chicago's hitters could very easily only get 5 or 6 hits tonight. I'll be on the Rays, you can play it up to -125.

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick

Pick: Rays ML -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

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Article Author


Justin applies his background in physics and advanced probability statistics to sports betting through developing and analyzing predictive data models. Focusing on College Basketball and Major League Baseball, Justin’s approach is finding agreement between traditional handicapping methods and statistical analysis. He has appeared on CBS SportsLine and The Early Edge, and also co-hosts Market Movers on YouTube.


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