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I have been looking at different ways to attack this game for a while now, and I found it. It’s a little out of the box but we like a little bit of weirdness. Here's my best bet for Tuesday's Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction: Can We Trust Corbin Burnes And The Brewers Bullpen?

I’ll start this off by explaining what this bet means and where to find it. This bet is essentially betting on the Brewers to lead after 5 innings and to win the game outright. It is very similar to halftime/full-time in other sports. A tie in the first 5 innings will not be graded as a push and it would be a loss so it’s crucial that Milwaukee leads by at least a run after 5 innings. To find this prop on Caesars it will be all the way to the right under the “prop bets” column and it’ll be the second thing you see when scrolling down. If Caesars isn’t an available book for you I also see it (although at worse odds) on DraftKings under “game parlays” where it says “1st 5 innings/Moneyline”.

Click Here for Brewers vs Pirates Odds

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Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

1u - Brewers Double Result (-108) (Bet $108 to win $100)

*Odds Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing*

Now that we cleared up what we’re betting on and how to find it let me dive into why I like it. Corbin Burnes burned us in opening start and he’s now seemed to find his old ways after pitching 7 scoreless innings in his last start. Burnes has the highest strikeout prop I've seen this season with 8.5 and he’s projected to only allow one run tonight in his at least 6 innings of play. Brewers are a rare team where I almost prefer full game betting them compared to first 5’s because of my belief in Josh Hader and Devin Williams. Burnes has 37 battles with these batters throughout his career and has only allowed 7 hits for a measly .189 batting average. Five of those hits were for singles so it’s hard to imagine him giving up many runs here.

Brubaker is on the bump for Pittsburgh and although I think he’s a talented guy he has surely struggled in his first two starts. JT has allowed 8 runs in just over 7 innings, leading to a 9.82 ERA. I do believe that number will come down today but I don’t expect it to be a dominant performance by any means. I could see him allowing 3 runs through 5 innings or so. These Brewers bats have 14 hits against him in 53 at-bats which is good for a .264 batting average. That doesn’t jump off the page but we surely have the pitching edge here. If you just take MIL -0.5 F5 innings you have to pay -170 juice and if you just want Milwaukee moneyline then it’s over -250 everywhere. Pairing both almost get you plus odds, I'll take my chances.

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Brewers vs. Pirates Line Movement

Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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