New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Best Bet: Back This First Inning Play for Wednesday
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Best Bet: Back This First Inning Play for Wednesday
Another day, another first-inning play. MLB article plays are now 7-5 on the season, and we are searching for 8-5 tonight. To get there, we look to the San Francisco Giants, who are in game three of the series in Citi Field and are trying to avoid a series loss tonight. The Mets have started the season with an impressive 9-3 and look like they could be early contenders behind one of the strongest pitching rotations in the league.
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction
These are two dominant starting pitchers. Carlos Rodon is coming off a season where he posted a 2.37 earned run average over 24 starts and 132.2 innings pitched. He also stayed under a 1.0 WHIP with a 0.96 on the year, which is impressive in its own right. Rodon has picked up right where he left off from last season. He's only given up one run in each of his two starts this season, going twelve total innings with two earned runs. In those two starts, he also did not allow a first-inning run.
Rodon was exceptional in the first last year as well. In 24 starts, he allowed seven total first-inning runs. He also excelled in first plate appearances against opposing batters. In batter's first appearances in each game, they average just .152 batting against Rodon. Those numbers jumped to .214 in the second appearance, then .225 in the third. Rodon has a nasty slider that he pairs with his scorching fastball. I expect him to dominate early in this one.
Enough talk about Rodon because the Mets have a nasty pitcher themselves in Chris Bassitt. Bassitt throws just about every pitch you could name. He's nearly impossible to predict. He throws his four-seamer 22% of the time, his sinker 20.9% of the time, his cutter 25.1% of the time, his slider 14.1% of the time, his change-up 7% of the time, and his curveball 9.9% of the time. Talk about a pitching arsenal.
Bassitt has gone his first twelve innings pitched this year with just one earned run. He is also 2-0 on the NRFI like Rodon. He's also third in WHIP so far this season, posting just a .67 WHIP through his first two starts. Bassitt was exceptional at home last season, giving up just 19 earned runs in 70 innings pitched. Bassitt had just a 2.67 earned run average in the first inning last season, giving up eight first-inning runs in 27 starts.
The weather is going to be crappy as well. It will be cold at Citi Field tonight, and the wind is also blowing in. As a result of the pitching and weather, this total is sitting at a shockingly low 6.5. That being said, Fanduel is offering the first inning to go scoreless at just -145. This is a number I can't pass on with the conditions present. Take the NRFI at Citi Field tonight with two aces and horrible weather.
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Best Bet
Pick: New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants NRFI (No Run in the First Inning) @ -145 (Bet $145 to win $100)
Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.