Friday's Early MLB Looks: Watch Out for Steven Matz, Reed Detmers
Friday's Early MLB Looks: Watch Out for Steven Matz, Reed Detmers
In the pitcher strikeout game, you have to be quick. Everyone knows that. You can't just be hanging around all day waiting for lineups without knowing who you're looking for. This isn't the other sports. Teams will legit just put out a lineup and it could literally say anybody's name. That's why you have to know which names you want. Believe it or not, there are guys out there that do this every day. The lineups drop and then they go in. Immediately. While you're stuck trying to figure out who's who, they're betting. That's why you'll see a number go from 4.5 +125 to 4.5 -105 before you can even bet it. It's crazy. Well, not anymore. I can't have this happening to you anymore. Not on my watch.
Be patient on these. These are not quite picks yet. This is a watch list (a good one not like the ones we have for terrorists). We still need to see lineups. But if we see the names we want in these lineups, we need to go. That's just how we operate.
Steven Matz - St. Louis Cardinals
Matz gets the Cincinnati Reds tonight which is a good thing. In 190 plate appearances against lefties this season, the Reds have whiffed 52 times. That's bad. MacKenzie Gore just broke these guys off for seven the other day. The issue is, Matz's number is 5.5 -105 at DraftKings so we're already pretty high.
Still, I think Matz could get six if the right guys are in the lineup, and -105 isn't too bad of a price. Especially considering FanDuel is charging -112. If we see four or five of Aramis Garcia, Joey Votto, Aristides Aquino, Mike Moustakas, Brandon Drury, Tyler Naquin, and Jake Fraley, we could have something here. All of those guys are 25% or higher in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. Matz could be in play tonight with the right lineup.
Reid Detmers - LA Angels
What we have here is what I like to call the opportunity of a lifetime. A lefty going against the Baltimore Orioles. On the season, no team has struck out more against left-handed pitchers. What adds to the fun is the fact that the Orioles are batting .225 against southpaws so far. This kid could last a little longer tonight than normal.
We don't know what umpire crew will be working this one but I do know that Baltimore has so many guys that are 20% or higher in strikeout percentage against left-handers. Any combination of Ryan McKenna, Chris Owings, Rougned Odor, Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins, Kelvin Gutierrez, and Austin Hays could produce a strike-out party atmosphere. All of those guys have at least a 31.6% strikeout rate vs left-handed pitchers. All we have to do is wait for a lineup at this point.
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Article Author
John has spent the past 20+ years betting sports on a daily basis and is considered by many to be a walking sports betting encyclopedia. From obscure player props to sides and totals, if there is an angle, John will find it. His work has appeared on Rotogrinders and he has been a regular on sports talk radio stations across the country. Based in the US, John operates a blog & podcast, Sports Bets Beers, which covers betting angles in the NFL, NBA, MLB, & NHL.