Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction: Trusting Gut Over Heart
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction: Trusting Gut Over Heart
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Pick
1u - Justin Verlander u7.5 K’s (-116) (Bet $116 to win $100)
*Odds available at FanDuel at time of publishing*
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction
I try to take emotions out of gambling and just trust the data, with that being said I am an avid Detroit sports fan who grew up watching what we called “Must See JV” and it was spectacular. The whole town loved him, he was my personal favorite and he’s still that guy at age 39. He is dominating thus far with two stellar starts with a .69 ERA (nice) and has struck out seven and eight in his two starts.
So if he has seven and eight K’s in his two starts why would i be so confident to fade him in this spot with a 1/2 hit rate? In his one start with eight K’s he did go eight full innings, that will not be the case vs Toronto. The Blue Jays have not allowed a single pitcher to throw for seven or more K’s so Verlander could set the record against them this year so far and we’d still cash our under. Asking for eight is just alot to ask against this team. There’s a reason the other books have this at 6.5.
Verlander has a great history vs these Blue Jays bats but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will translate into strikeouts. Toronto seems to have a new approach at the plate where they are putting more balls into play and taking fewer pitches. Verlander hammers strikes so against teams that take plenty of pitches he will get more strikeouts but I think we could see some groundouts and flyouts in this one. Verlander should pitch a gem but he could go seven innings and strik eout one in each inning and we’d still be safe. Vlad, Bo, Springer, and Chapman are all viewed as stars for a reason, if JV isn’t 100% on his game they will make him pay.
This hurts my heart to do but I’m in the business of trying to make people money, not protect my own feelings. This play stood out to me and I have Verlander ending with 6 or 7 here. I see many people on Astros tonight too which makes me think that Blue Jays will have a good game. Usually, if too much of the public is on one side then it will go wrong more than it will go right. All speculation I know but something I personally believe nonetheless. Verlander's pitching outs is 18.5 which makes me think he only goes six anyway and if that’s the case then he will need to strike out eight of his 18 outs which would be a ton to ask.
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