Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction: Can the Giants Keep the Win Streak Going?
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction: Can the Giants Keep the Win Streak Going?
Brewers vs. Giants Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: April 25, 2022
- Game Time: 6:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings
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Brewers vs Giants Line Movement
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants Prediction
The Giants and Brewers will play a very odd one-game series tonight in American Family Field. The Giants are tied with the Dodgers in second place in the NL with 11 wins, with the Brewers just one win behind. The Giants travel to Milwaukee fresh off a road sweep in Washington, D.C. The Brewers are back at home after a 2-1 series win in Philadelphia. Both teams have seen success in the early parts of the season, and Milwaukee comes into this contest as a -200 favorite. Who will take this one game series?
The Giants appear to be going with a bullpen game for this matchup, with Sam Long taking the mound in the first when he usually comes out of the bullpen. This doesn't come as much of a surprise, though, as starting pitchers Alex Cobb and Anthony DeSclafani are on the 10-day IL. I think the pitching matchup is the reasoning behind this heavy line. It's a bullpen game for the Giants versus an ace in Corbin Burnes. I mean, this is essentially the same team that went 107-55 and had the most wins in the NL last year as a +160 underdog.
By no means does a bullpen game from the Giants mean a free win for the other team. The Giants have one of the best bullpens in the league, and they have all their top bullpen arms available. The Brewers, however, do not. They have four pitchers who have yet to allow a run out of the bullpen, and only one of them will be available. They could push Trevor Gott, but I doubt they would in this one-game series. Both Josh Hader and Devin Williams will be unavailable after pitching yesterday, which means the Brewers will have to rely on their "worse" bullpen guys against the toughest team they will have faced this year.
Corbin Burnes has looked good to start the year, but it hasn't exactly been against powerhouses. This year, his three outings have been against the Cubs, the Orioles, and the Pirates. The best team I listed, the Cubs, he struggled against, going five innings with three earned runs for a 5.4 ERA. The Giants lineup also has members familiar and successful against Burnes. Joc Pederson, who will lead off today, is 4-8 with a home run off Burnes. Brandon Belt, batting second, is also 4-8 with a home run off Burnes. Crawford isn't as good, with a 1-8 record against Burnes, and the rest of the lineup hasn't seen him much or at all, but the top of the lineup will prove to be difficult on Burnes tonight.
The Brewers have also been bailed out by their pitchers this year. Despite being 27th in the league overall in OPS, they've managed a 10-6 record. This is due to their pitching rotation but also their strong bullpen arms, and they'll be without their best tonight. The Brewers have also really struggled against left-handed pitching this year. They have batted only .176 off lefties, compared to .214 against righties. Even after Long comes out, some of the best arms out of the bullpen throw left, like Jarlin Garcia and Jake McGee. It could be a long night against lefties for the Brewers.
It seems ridiculous to me to be getting the Giants at this price as an underdog. The Brewers as 10-6 on the surface, but their bats have not been active at all, and now they're facing one of the top bullpens in the league. They've also struggled significantly against left-handed pitching, which they'll see plenty of tonight. Plus, the Giants don't even have to win outright here for us to win, and the Brewers have had plenty of close one-run losses and wins early in the season, so even if the Brewers walk it off here, we can still win our bet. If this is a trap, I'm falling for it, but the number is too good to pass on here. Take the Giants on the run line tonight.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants Pick
Pick: San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-125) (Bet $125 to win $100)
Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.