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The Rays and Mariners play the rubber match of their three-game series this afternoon, and MLB expert Mike Spector offers his best bet for Thursday.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction: Should We Expect Runs at Tropicana Field This Afternoon?

The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the winningest teams in baseball over the last four seasons. They have made the playoffs each of the previous three seasons and have won 90+ games in each of the last three full 162-game seasons (and 80+ games in five of the last six). However, one of the few puzzles they have not been able to solve is the Seattle Mariners. 

The Mariners are 37-19 in their last 56 meetings against the Rays, including winning six of the previous nine in Tampa Bay. 

The Mariners have won four of their last five games, while Tampa Bay is 2-5 in its last seven games vs. AL West opponents. Will these trends continue today, or will Tampa Bay play to the elite caliber they have been accustomed to this decade?

Read on for our best play in today’s Rays vs. Mariners game.

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Rays vs. Mariners Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: April 28, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Rays vs Mariners Odds

Rays vs. Mariners Total Runs Movement

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction

Mariners starting pitcher Chris Flexen (1-2, 3.63) is coming off his best outing of the season, allowing one run on six hits in seven innings to the Royals. Success at home is nothing new for Flexen, as his career ERA is 3.89 in 28 appearances (24 starts) at home. However, Flexen has not shown any consistency on the road, where his ERA balloons to 5.70 and his WHIP increases to 1.718 compared to 1.248 at home.

Flexen is opposed by Corey Kluber (0-1, 3.68), who somehow managed to walk away allowing “just” four earned runs in his last start against the Red Sox. Boston had traffic on the basepaths in every inning against Kluber, pounding him for 11 hits over five innings. Kluber also has not shown an ability to strike hitters out with the same frequency he has had for several seasons. He has not finished a season with less than nine strikeouts per nine innings since 2013, but his current rate of 7.4 K’s/9 is on pace to be the worst of his career.

Kluber had only finished a season with a hard-hit percentage allowed of over 40% just once since 2015 (when the metric was first charted). To this point, Kluber has allowed hard-hit balls on 40.4% of balls in play, and his ground ball to fly ball ratio (0.68) is also on pace to be the worst of his career.

Seattle’s offense is eight behind the Angels’ for the most runs scored in the American League (albeit with one fewer game played).The Mariners have been on fire of late, scoring 30 combined runs during a recent four-game winning streak that was just snapped last night.

The over is 7-3 in the last ten meetings in Tampa Bay between these teams. Thus, given Flexen’s road woes and Kluber’s propensity for allowing hard contact, we love the over in this series finale.

Rays vs. Mariners Pick

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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