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Daytime baseball today leading up to the NFL Draft, how could one not love sports? Here's my best MLB bet for Thursday's Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros game.
ANALYSIS

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Prediction: Can Justin Verlander Get Some Help From the Offense?

Rangers vs. Astros Start Time and Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: April 28, 2022
  • Game Time: 2:05 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Rangers vs Astros Odds

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Rangers vs. Astros Line Movement

Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros Pick

1u - Houston Astros -0.5 First 5 Innings (-120) (Bet $120 to win $100)

*Odds Available at BetMGM at Time of Publishing*

This is about as chalky as our plays get but why overcomplicate things? Verlander looks like an absolute ace this year and we have no reason to believe he won’t continue his dominant ways. Astros are up 2-1 in the series versus Texas and are looking to avoid the split series and propel themselves into a winning record. I feel like the Astros are still a 90+ win team so I expect them to get hot and they’ve already won their last two. But why are we on this bet specifically?

If I like the Astros to win because of Justin Verlander I would imagine they at least have a 1 run lead after five innings. Verlander is projected to go at least 6 innings pitched so he should be on the mound during the entirety of our bet. Verlander's lifetime against these Texas batters has only allowed a .235 batting average in over 100 plate appearances. Perez is the other pitcher on the bump and he has struggled against these Houston batters. In 85 at-bats he has allowed 28 hits, that’s nearly a .330 average. Not to mention he has walked 11 guys which would make his OBP a wild .406. Astros should have a field day today.

Verlander is dominant and Perez struggles especially against these Houston bats. Astros are 9-9 and will surely not finish the year at .500. Sometimes bets are just that simple, this doesn’t seem marked correctly. Even the normal moneyline for Houston has value at -160, to be honest. Whether this one wins or loses, I know I'm betting on the all-around better team, whether pitching or batting. We made money fading Verlander last time but now we’re gonna back him up and hope for a master class performance.

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Article Author

NFLNBAMLB

Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.

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