New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Will Tylor Megill's Hot Start Continue?
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Will Tylor Megill's Hot Start Continue?
The New York Mets put Major League Baseball’s best record on the line in tonight’s series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets return home after a six-game road trip where they went 4-2 and face a Phillies squad trying to get over .500 for the first time since they were 3-2. New York took two out of three games in Philadelphia in its second series of the season and remains the only team in baseball that has won all of its series to this point.
Will the Mets take the first step to another series victory in Friday’s opener, or will the Phillies continue the momentum from a four-game sweep of the Rockies and win their fifth consecutive game tonight? Read on for our best play in today’s Phillies and Mets game.
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Mets vs. Phillies Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: April 29, 2022
- Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
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Mets vs. Phillies Line Movement
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (1-2, 3.74) may not have the record he would like, but his 0.877 WHIP is on pace to be the lowest of his career. Nola’s home and road splits are drastic, as he has always been a better pitcher at Citizens Bank Park. At home, Nola is 39-21 with a 3.14 ERA, but on the road, he is 29-30 with a 4.27 ERA. In addition, he averages almost two more strikeouts per nine innings in his home starts. Interestingly, the Mets are the only division rival that Nola is over .500 against on the road, going 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA in ten career starts at Citi Field.
Tylor Megill was New York’s de facto Opening Day starter after Jacob deGrom started the season on the IL, and Max Scherzer’s start was pushed back a day. However, Megill has surprisingly pitched every bit like an Opening Day starter, going 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA so far. Megill’s success is largely tied to the fact that he is getting more ground ball outs than last year, and his fly ball percentage has dropped from 30% last year to 21.9% this year. That should help keep Philadelphia’s big bombers like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos in the yard. Megill held the Phillies scoreless over 5.1 innings while allowing three hits and striking out five in a 2-0 road win on April 12th.
It will be interesting to see how Megill holds up in the second half of the year with less than 113 career innings pitched. However, that should not matter this early in the season.
The over is 4-0 in Megill’s last four home starts, but the Mets have won each of Megill’s previous four starts overall (a career-high). Thus, despite Philadelphia’s success in this head-to-head rivalry of late (7-3 in the last ten games), we are siding with the red-hot Megill and the Mets tonight.
Mets vs. Phillies Pick
- Mets ML (-120) (Bet $120 to win $100)