Odds format
United States
Share to Facebook
Share to Twitter
Copy Link
The Phillies and Mets open a three-game series at Citi Field, and MLB expert Mike Spector offers his best play on Friday's series opener.

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Will Tylor Megill's Hot Start Continue?

The New York Mets put Major League Baseball’s best record on the line in tonight’s series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Mets return home after a six-game road trip where they went 4-2 and face a Phillies squad trying to get over .500 for the first time since they were 3-2. New York took two out of three games in Philadelphia in its second series of the season and remains the only team in baseball that has won all of its series to this point.

Will the Mets take the first step to another series victory in Friday’s opener, or will the Phillies continue the momentum from a four-game sweep of the Rockies and win their fifth consecutive game tonight? Read on for our best play in today’s Phillies and Mets game.

Click here to claim our best BetMGM Promo Code for all the MLB action or check out the offers below for a selection of the best offers available on site!

Error fetching data.

Mets vs. Phillies Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: April 29, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Mets vs Phillies Odds

Mets vs. Phillies Line Movement

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Phillies starting pitcher Aaron Nola (1-2, 3.74) may not have the record he would like, but his 0.877 WHIP is on pace to be the lowest of his career. Nola’s home and road splits are drastic, as he has always been a better pitcher at Citizens Bank Park. At home, Nola is 39-21 with a 3.14 ERA, but on the road, he is 29-30 with a 4.27 ERA. In addition, he averages almost two more strikeouts per nine innings in his home starts. Interestingly, the Mets are the only division rival that Nola is over .500 against on the road, going 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA in ten career starts at Citi Field.

Tylor Megill was New York’s de facto Opening Day starter after Jacob deGrom started the season on the IL, and Max Scherzer’s start was pushed back a day. However, Megill has surprisingly pitched every bit like an Opening Day starter, going 3-0 with a 2.35 ERA so far. Megill’s success is largely tied to the fact that he is getting more ground ball outs than last year, and his fly ball percentage has dropped from 30% last year to 21.9% this year. That should help keep Philadelphia’s big bombers like Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos in the yard. Megill held the Phillies scoreless over 5.1 innings while allowing three hits and striking out five in a 2-0 road win on April 12th.

It will be interesting to see how Megill holds up in the second half of the year with less than 113 career innings pitched. However, that should not matter this early in the season. 

The over is 4-0 in Megill’s last four home starts, but the Mets have won each of Megill’s previous four starts overall (a career-high). Thus, despite Philadelphia’s success in this head-to-head rivalry of late (7-3 in the last ten games), we are siding with the red-hot Megill and the Mets tonight.

Mets vs. Phillies Pick

For the return of MLB, DraftKings is giving new users $200 if they bet just $5 on ANY MLB moneyline. Click here to claim this amazing offer!

Error fetching data.

Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.