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The Astros started the season off in a hitting slump but finally look like they are starting to break out of it. They scored 11 runs yesterday against the Blue Jays on the road, but can they keep that up today? Let's break down my best MLB bet for Saturday.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros Prediction: Will the Astros Bats Stay Hot?

Blue Jays vs. Astros Start Time and Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: April 30, 2022
  • Game Time: 3:07 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Blue Jays vs. Astros Line Movement

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros Prediction

The Astros have been known as one of the best offensive teams in the league over the last few seasons, but their lineup looks a little different nowadays. Altuve is currently injured, Correa is gone, and Bregman is finally back from injury. They had really been struggling offensively until last night as they were ranked in the bottom half of the AL in most major offensive categories.

They are currently 25th in the league in team batting average, 16th in team slugging %, and 20th in overall runs scored. So even though Bregman is back, the loss of Altuve and Correa from the middle of their lineup has really hurt their offensive production. Part of that is due to the slow starts of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, but they combined to go 5-8 with a homer and 5 RBIs in their series opener against the Jays last night so maybe they are turning a corner.

Tonight, the Astros will face Jose Berrios who has had an up and down season to this point. Berrios started off the year with a horrendous start vs a really bad Rangers team as he didn't even get out of the first inning but has since bounced back and looked very solid. Over his last 3 starts against the Red Sox and Yankees, he didn't allow more than 3 runs and went deep into those games, so will he be able to have success against this surging Astros lineup? I believe he will.

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The Blue Jays offense was up to the task last night, their pitching staff just could not help them out. The Jays were able to score 7 runs last night and have also given Berrios a lot of run support in his starts this season.

Luis Garcia takes the mound again today for the Astros and he was really solid last year but was a different pitcher on the road. Last year on the road he tallied a 4.24 ERA compared to a 2.39 ERA at home. He had the exact same number of home and road appearances last season and allowed 10 more hits, 15 more earned runs, and walked 12 more batters on the road in 76 innings compared to 79 innings at home. His strikeout rate was down on the road as well and his opponent's batting average went up 40 points in his road starts. So overall, he really struggled away from home.

This game also has the line dynamic that I frequently talk about as the Blue Jays are considerable favorites even though Berrios has a higher ERA compared to Garcia. We saw this trend pay dividends with the Padres at home versus the Braves and also the other night with the Cardinals at home against the D-backs. I think the Blue Jays are in a prime spot to bounce back today and think they even this series at 1 apiece. With that being said, I am rolling with Blue Jays F5 ML at -135 and Blue Jays Full Game ML at -136 for 1U each as my most confident MLB picks of the day.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros Picks

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Article Author


Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.


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