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The Astros and Blue Jays play the rubber match of their three-game series north of the border on Sunday afternoon, and MLB expert Mike Spector explains who has the edge.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros Prediction: Will the Blue Jays Close Out the Series With a Win?

The Toronto Blue Jays have played six series so far, winning five and splitting a four-game series against the New York Yankees in the Bronx. Pretty good, eh? The Houston Astros have a chance to be the first team to take a series from the Blue Jays in 2022 in this afternoon’s rubber match at the Rogers Centre. 

In last week’s head-to-head series, the Astros won the finale, but the Blue Jays had already clinched the series with victories in the first two games. So will Toronto keep its unblemished series record, or will Houston win its second consecutive road series? Read on for our best play in today’s Astros and Blue Jays series finale.

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Blue Jays vs. Astros Start Time and Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 1, 2022
  • Game Time: 1:37 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Blue Jays vs Astros Odds

Blue Jays vs. Astros Line Movement

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros Prediction

The Astros had all the momentum heading into the middle game of this three-game series on Saturday afternoon. Houston had scored 11 runs (their second-highest total of the season) in the series opener, which was their fourth consecutive road win. And the Astros did everything they could to win yesterday, but Luis Garcia simply made two bad pitches to former Astros World Series MVP George Springer, which was the difference in the ballgame.

Springer hit two solo home runs, the first of which was his 46th career leadoff home run. He is now tied for sixth for the most leadoff home runs in MLB history. All Houston could muster was one solo home run from Yordan Alvarez, and Toronto improved to 6-0 in Jose Berrios’ last six starts.

Today’s Blue Jays starting pitcher Kevin Gausman has terrible career numbers against Houston, going 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA in four starts. However, just one of those starts came since 2017, and in case you haven’t noticed. Gausman has been a much different pitcher over the last two seasons. He is 15-7 in his previous 22 starts and has arguably the nastiest pitch in baseball, a splitter that caused the most swings and misses of any pitch in baseball last season. 

Many will be quick to back the Astros citing Gausman’s career numbers against them, but that does not tell the whole story, as current Houston hitters are just 9-for-44 (.205) with two home runs against him. Conversely, the Blue Jays have owned left-handed starting pitching at home, winning their last four home games against lefty starters. Thus, Houston’s Framber Valdez (1-1, 3.15) will have to pitch well to give his team a chance to win.

Luis Garcia could not have pitched much better yesterday, but the Astros still fell short. Toronto has a knack for winning close games, as they are 8-2 in one-run games, the most such wins of any team in the league. Considering the Blue Jays’ moneyline odds are not too steep, we prefer to back them to win outright with the fear that they find themselves in yet another one-run game.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros Pick

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Article Author


Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest


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