Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Prediction: Will Runs Be Limited In This Series Opener?

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Prediction: Will Runs Be Limited In This Series Opener?

The National League East division race was thought by many to be a two-team race this year, with the New York Mets and big-spending owner Steve Cohen trying to unseat the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves. Not many saw a 12-9 start from the Miami Marlins coming, especially former CEO Derek Jeter, who left the front office in the offseason citing that he did not have the same vision for the franchise's future as others in management.

However, if Miami continues to pitch as it has pitched thus far, they will absolutely be in contention for a playoff spot. The Marlins have won three consecutive series because of their stellar starting pitching. Will that pitching again be lights out in their series opener with the Arizona Diamondbacks?

Read on for our best play in today's Diamondbacks-Marlins series opener.

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Odds and Prediction

No one has pitched better than Miami's Pablo Lopez (3-0, 0.39) to start the season. Lopez leads the majors in ERA and has a minuscule 0.73 WHIP and .160 OBA to go with it. In fact, his 0.39 ERA is the lowest in Marlins history through four starts, surpassing Dontrelle Willis' 0.71 ERA through four starts in 2004. The Marlins are 5-0 in Lopez's last five starts as a favorite. 

A big reason for Lopez's and his team's success when he pitches is that opposing hitters have difficulty elevating his stuff. Lopez's ground ball to fly ball ratio is an eye-popping 1.37 through his first 23.1 innings, which is well above league average. So it is not surprising that he has not allowed a home run this season (it helps when you pitch in one of the most cavernous parks in baseball as well), and he should neutralize one of Arizona's biggest strengths, a lineup that has hit 24 home runs, tied for the sixth-most in the league. 

Speaking of Arizona's offense, it is incredible the Diamondbacks won ten games in April, considering they hit .181 as a team. If the Diamondbacks are not hitting bombs, they are not finding many ways to manufacture runs.

Runs will also be at a premium with Arizona's Zac Gallen (0-0, 0.60) on the mound. Gallen has allowed just six hits in 15 innings this year, and his 2.18 FIP is among the best in the league. In addition, Gallen's 16.2% line drive allowed percentage is on pace to shatter his previous career-best (23.3%), proving opposing hitters have difficulty squaring him up. 

The under has cashed in Gallen's last four Monday starts and is 4-1 in the previous five meetings between these teams. Admittedly, over/unders of 6.5 runs or lower are not common, but this low total is more than justified with these two starting pitchers on the mound.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Line Movement

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins Pick

• PICK: Diamondbacks-Marlins UNDER 6.5 (+100) (Bet $100 to win $100)