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The Washington Nationals travel to Denver to play the Colorado Rockies tonight in the first game of their three-game series. Ben Rajavuori breaks down the game and shares his pick.

Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals Prediction: Will the Bats Get Going Early in Colorado?

Rockies vs. Nationals Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: May 3, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings, Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, AT&T SportsNet Rocky Mountain

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Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals Prediction

Today, we head back to first-inning action in a prime spot this fine Tuesday evening. For this one, we head to Coors Field, where the Colorado Rockies will take on the Washington Nationals in a short, two-game series. You can catch this game on SportsNet RM and also MLB TV at 8:40 EST tonight.

I'm sure if you take a glance at who is pitching and where the game is, it's not impossible to guess whether I'm on the over or under .5 runs scored in the first. It doesn't take much in-depth analysis to explain this pick, but the numbers sure support it.

Taking the mound for the Nationals will be Erick Fedde, and he, like other Nationals starting pitchers, has been struggling. He's never been ace material by any means, and his career numbers have floated in the 4.5-6 ERA range over his six years in the big leagues. Fedde has two games pitched in Coors Field in his career, and over five combined innings, he has five earned runs for a 9.0 ERA. This includes a 1.6 WHIP over the five innings as well as two home runs given up.

The Rockies have seen success against Fedde, especially in Coors. As a right-handed pitcher, Fedde has a drop-off in numbers against left-handed batters. One lefty who has had tremendous success against Fedde is lefty Charlie Blackmon, who is 5-8 with a triple and a home run with zero strikeouts against Fedde in his career.

The Nationals could put up this first-inning run themselves, though, if the Rockies can't. Surprisingly, the Nationals are an excellent first-inning offense, especially on the road, where they lead the MLB in first-inning scoring. They have scored in the first inning in 60% of road games this year, and what better a pitcher to face to strengthen those numbers than Marquez.

German Marquez isn't necessarily a bad pitcher, especially in Coors Field, where his numbers are actually better, but he has struggled in his career in the first inning. Marquez has a 5.15 first-inning ERA in his career and has given up 81 first-inning runs in 142 starts. Over half the time, teams are scoring in the first off him. Like Fedde, Marquez is a right-handed pitcher who has shown struggles against left-handed batters. One lefty who could give Marquez fits in the first is Nats-star Juan Soto, who is 3-8 with a home run and just one strikeout versus Marquez in his career.

One more nugget of hitting stats may prove to be the difference in this play. The Nationals are first in the entire MLB in batting average on the road, batting .299. Like-wise, the Rockies are first in the entire MLB in batting average at home, batting .287.

This game is also in Coors Field, the most hitter-friendly park in the league. Weather conditions should be mild today, with a slight breeze blowing in, but the temps will be in the mid-60s.

I wouldn't be surprised if someone went yard in the first. Soto could hit a dinger, and so could Blackmon. Even if this doesn't cash on a home run, both lineups and pitchers have shown the numbers to support a heavy play on a first-inning run in this situation. I shopped around for this line and was able to find O.5 runs in the first inning on Bovada for only -135. I advise taking this one as high as -160. Good luck today if you tail, and let's cash another first-inning bet.

Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals Pick

Pick: Rockies vs. Nationals YRFI (Yes, Run In the First Inning) @ -135 (Bet $135 to win $100)

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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