Wednesday's Best MLB Bet: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals

Wednesday's Best MLB Bet: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals

Rockies vs. Nationals Start Time and Where to Watch

• Date: May 4, 2022
• Game Time: 8:40 pm ET
• Where to Watch: ATTR/MSN2

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Rockies vs. Nationals Line Movement

Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals Prediction

The Rockies have been one of the better home teams in baseball over the past few seasons and it really feels like they have a significant advantage over their opponents at Coors Field, but this was not the case last night as Marquez got lit up and the Nats took the series opener by a score of 10-2.

The Nationals have been playing much better lately and have been getting the job done at the plate with an explosive offense. Josh Bell is having a great start to their season and has been a nice 1-2 punch in the middle of that lineup paired with Juan Soto. The Nationals as a whole have been hitting the ball very well as they have scored over 10 runs in three of their last 4 games, but I think they are due for some negative regression tonight against Austin Gomber, who has great splits at Coors Field in his career.

Last season, Gomber had some of the most drastic home versus road splits in the entire league. Last year on the road, Gomber really struggled as his ERA was in the high 5's for most of the year and got hit very hard in the majority of those starts. When at home, Gomber looked like a completely different pitcher with an ERA just north of 2.00 and looked like the ace of the team. The Rockies also played very well as a whole last year in his home starts and I think that trend will continue again tonight.

When betting on baseball, I like to look beyond the numbers and try to bet on when a team is due for positive or negative regression. The Nationals have been hitting and slugging way beyond their season averages over the past week and a half and I think they are due to come back to earth here.

On the other side, Gomber really struggled in his only home start of the year against the Cubs as he allowed 8 hits, 4 walks, and 5 total runs in just 4 1/3rd innings of work. Gomber has figured things out over his last 2 starts on the road against the Tigers and Phillies as he went 6 innings in both starts, while only allowing a total of 2 earned runs and more importantly just 1 walk in those starts. Gomber has elite stuff but can really struggle with command at times, but it looks as if he has gotten his command issues under control over his last few appearances, so I am hoping that continues tonight. Gomber also racked up 14 strikeouts in those 2 starts and I think he is in a perfect spot to have a much better home start compared to his first appearance of the season.

Now that we have highlighted Gomber, let's take a look at who the Nationals are starting tonight. The Nats are throwing Left-hander, Patrick Corbin, who has struggled mightily on the season. He comes into this matchup with an 0-4 record and an ERA just under 9.00... not good. This year, Corbin has also had a pattern of having 1 good start and 1 bad start.

He opened the season with an average start against the Mets allowing 2 earned in 4 innings but then followed up that performance by getting pummeled by the Braves to a tune of 9 hits and 6 earned runs in less than 3 innings. He is also coming off his best start of the year against the Marlins where he tossed 6 innings allowing 2 earned and striking out 8 so I think he will regress a bit tonight.

Coors field is a very tough park to be successful in as an opposing pitcher and I think that Corbin is going to struggle tonight against a Rockies lineup that is primed to break out after a few lackluster performances. With that being said, I am rolling with Rockies F5 ML at -142 and Full Game ML at -141 for 1U each as my most confident MLB Picks of the night.

Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals Picks

• Rockies F5 ML (-142) (Bet $142 to Win $100)
• Rockies ML (-141) (Bet $141 to Win $100)

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