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The Astros started the year in a bit of a hitting slump, but their pitchers have really picked up the slack as they swept the Mariners while only allowing 2 total runs, but will their dominance on the mound continue tonight? Let's break it down.
ANALYSIS

Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction: Will the Astros Stay Hot at Home?

Astros vs. Tigers Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 5, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Astros vs. Tigers Line Movement

Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Prediction

The Tigers travel to Houston to start a series with the Astros tonight and they have really struggled on the road against better competition this season. They are a combined 1-5 on the road against the Twins and Dodgers and their Achilles heel this season has been their anemic offense. In those 6 road games against the Twins and Dodgers, they scored a combined 14 runs for an average of 2.33 runs per game... not very good. They were also held to 1 run or fewer in 3 of those games as they just have not been hitting the ball very well lately.

On the mound, the Tigers will start Tarik Skubal, their young left-handed pitcher who at times shows very electric stuff but can be inconsistent. In two starts against the Rockies and Royals, he threw a combined 11 2/3rds innings and didn't allow a single earned run, did not walk a single batter, and struck out 13. Those are elite numbers but now let's take a look at how he fared in his other two starts. The other two starts came against the White Sox and Twins, two much better teams than the Rockies and Royals, and division rivals. In those starts, he allowed 13 hits, 7 earned runs and walked 3 in 9 total innings of work. That is a lot of total traffic on the basepaths and the most concerning thing about those numbers is that neither the Twins nor White Sox have the type of talent in their lineup that the Astros possess.

So, the main question tonight is going to be who will show up. Will we see the electric stuff that Skubal sometimes flashes against the sometimes-anemic Astros offense, or will we get the Skubal who has struggled mightily against better competition? I think we will see option number two.

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The Astros haven't necessarily broken out offensively this season, but they finally have their full lineup back and it is one of the top lineups in the entire league from a talent perspective. Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Alvarez, Gurriel, Tucker, and Pena is probably the best 1-7 in baseball and might only trail the Dodgers in terms of overall talent. They have not faced Skubal too often as their starters tonight are a combined 0-10 off of him but that almost makes me like the Astros, even more, tonight because I think they are due for some positive regression and should hit the ball well.

Skubal also really struggled on the road last season as his stats looked drastically different in home versus road starts. At home in 2021, he had a very respectable 3.56 ERA but on the road, his ERA rose to 5.55. The number of homeruns he allowed also drastically went up on the road as he allowed 22 homers in 58 innings on the road compared to just 13 homers in 91 innings at home in 2021. I think Skubal is a solid young pitcher but overall he is in a very tough spot tonight against one of the best lineups in the league and I think he is going to struggle.

This game also features one of the line dynamics that I always mention as the Astros are still considerable favorites tonight even while their starting pitcher, Jose Urquidy, has a significantly higher ERA at 5.95 compared to Skubal's ERA of 3.05. Urquidy has faced some stiff competition this season as he has faced the Blue Jays twice and the Angels once who are two of the better offenses in the entire league. Urquidy has also pitched much better at home and I think he will have a solid performance against this below-average Tigers' offense. With that being said, I am rolling with Astros F5 ML at -145 (WynnBet) and Full Game ML at -146 (YouWager) for 1U each as my most confident MLB Picks of the night.

Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Picks

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Article Author

NCAABNBAMLB

Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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