Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction: Can the Mets Get to Aaron Nola a Third Time?

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction: Can the Mets Get to Aaron Nola a Third Time?

The New York Mets ended a four-game series against the Braves, winning two games of four. That means that the Mets haven't won every single series this season. However, that also means that the Mets haven't lost a single series this season.

Tonight, the Mets will travel to Philadelphia with their 18-9 record and start another four-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are just 11-14 but are favorites in this game at home. Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Thursday's game between the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies.

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Phillies vs. Mets Start Time and Where to Watch

• Date: May 5, 2022
• Game Time: 6:45 pm ET
• Where to Watch: MLBN

Click Here for Phillies vs Mets Odds

Phillies vs. Mets Injury Report

Mets

None of Importance

Phillies

Out: 2B Scott Kingery (Shoulder), OF Mickey Moniak (Hand)

Phillies vs. Mets Line Movement

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Prediction

It's going to be Aaron Nola on the mound for the Phillies tonight. Nola is really on the cusp of being an ace pitcher in the MLB. At times, you can see so much potential out in Nola. Other times, you're wondering how he can have such lackadaisical outings. Nola has also allowed multiple runs in every game but one this season. In two starts against the Mets, Nola has allowed three runs in each.

Despite Nola’s inconsistencies, he still has a 3.12 xFIP with 31.8% strikeouts and 4.7% walks. The Mets just kind of have his number and Nola's been a bit unlucky. The right-hander is getting 56.9% ground balls and limiting line drives to 10.8%. He’s been phenomenal analytically.

Looking at the Mets’ projected lineup, it has a wOBA of .315 with an ISO of .114 against righties. Brandon Nimmo, Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, and Jeff McNeil have all been above-average against righties this year.

Meanwhile, Taijuan Walker has thrown seven innings this season and has allowed no runs. All seven of those innings, coincidentally, have come against the Phillies. The Phillies’ top half of the order can rake but the bottom half can be considered rally killers. The Phillies still have a solid projected lineup with a .156 ISO and wOBA of .316 against righties.

Really, the only four batters that have hit consistently against righties in the Phillies lineup are Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper, and Nick Castellanos. The bottom half of the order has limited power and low weighted on-base averages.

With Walker, there's not much to go off of this season. He's thrown seven innings of work. However, his two games in the sample size came against this very team. Walker has had success against the Phillies while Nola has allowed six runs in two games against the Mets.

Yet, the Mets are solid underdogs on the road in this one. I'll take the Mets at +.5 in the first five innings and test my luck with the Mets against Nola.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Pick

• Mets -.5 F5 @ (-105) (Bet $105 to Win $100)