Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction: NRSI With A Twist
Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction: NRSI With A Twist
The books have been messing with our NRSI’s and don’t want to see the good guys (us) prevail. We love to find loopholes and workarounds and we have a great one today.
Bet $5, Win $200 if the Guardians or Blue Jays Win
1u - CLE/TOR No Runs 2nd Inning / Toronto u6.5 runs (-135) (Bet $135 to win $100)
There will definitely be people looking at this bet confused, allow me to explain. NRSI’s are on almost all books but this specific pairing will likely be something that you need Draftkings to back. For those with DK as an option let's explain how to place this bet. Under “Same Game Parlay” you will find the “Game Props” tab and go to Toronto Total Runs and click u6.5 which is near -600 odds. After that you will go the “Innings” tab where you will look for “Total Runs - 2nd Inning” and you will take the u0.5 which I see at the time of writing for -185. With the combination of the two, we get a better -135 total so we reduce our NRSI juice by quite a good bit with the only added part being Blue Jays must score six runs or below.
Shane Bieber is on the mound for Cleveland who I personally am a huge fan of. Bieber this year is enjoying a 2.45 ERA and is yet to allow a run in the 2nd inning in the 5 appearances he has had. Additionally, opposing teams have only averaged 2.6 runs against Cleveland when he starts which is far off the 7 the Blue Jays would need to hurt our 2nd leg.
Bieber has great lifetime stats vs these Toronto bats as he has only allowed 4 hits in 25 at bats to them for a puny .160 average. Gausman is on the mound for Toronto and he also has not allowed a 2nd inning run this year in his 5 starts and hoists a similar ERA with a 2.27 ERA. Weirdly enough, Gausman has been significantly better on the road as well so do with that information as you wish.
This game has a 6.5 total and the 2nd inning is known to be one of the lowest scoring in baseball history. Cleveland has failed to score in the 2nd inning in 21 of 25 games despite their great start to the year in terms of batting average (3rd best in MLB). Toronto has failed to score in the 2nd inning in 20 of 27 games. If you just take those two percentages and find the probability it would be over 62% likelihood this hits. When you factor in who’s on the mound for each team then I think it should have over a 70% chance of hitting and is definitely worth the -135 juice. I know this bet to some appears random and chaotic but I assure you that NRSI’s are something we’ve proven to have value and gives us an edge over the typical bettor.