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I’ve spent hours looking at this guy and he’s the real, I’m a believer. Here is my prediction for the Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays game later tonight.

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction: Riding The Logan Gilbert Train

Mariners vs. Rays Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: May 6, 2022
  • Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: Apple TV+

Get $200 if EITHER Team Hits a Home Run. Click here or the CLAIM NOW button below to claim this BetMGM Sportsbook promotion.

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Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Line Movement

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Pick

1u - Logan Gilbert u2.5 Earned Runs (-110 @ MGM) (Bet $110 to win $100)

*Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing*

Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

I’ll be honest, when I first saw this bet I looked away immediately. Logan Gilbert is having an elite year, he has a ludicrous 0.64. I genuinely don’t think there’s any chance he remains under one for much longer but he doesn’t need to for us. I like to zig when others zag so naturally I didn’t want to bet on what was obvious but there are too many positives of this bet. Logan Gilbert can have his worst start of the year and still cash us. He has two ER in 22.1 innings pitched. The cool thing about this bet type is that it’s earned runs so in theory the Rays can put up three runs but if his defense sells him he can still cash us.

Among those 22.1 innings pitched we saw 5.2 of them against this same Tampa team. Gilbert came out and made them look absolutely silly. He not only shut them out when he was out there but only allowed two hits total, the guy is just built different. This year he has looked much improved but I try my best to be transported so i must admit that last year he played them twice and allowed three runs and four runs in two outings. But that was a year ago when he was a baby, just 24-year-old. Now he’s a season veteran at 25 and is taking the league by storm.

The reason we’re taking this mostly is because of just how dominant he has been. It’s unlike me to take a player I know will have negative regression but the number makes no sense. Tampa Bays team total for the game is juiced on the under at 3.5 so the public likes Tampa to score exactly three. If Gilbert goes the six innings he’s projected then that leaves three innings of bullpen arms, if he pitches 2/3 of a game people think the other team will score three runs in that would project him to only allow two runs, sounds good to me. Gilbert has only allowed 15 hits in over 22 innings, that just isn’t normal. It’s not the pick I would normally give but the number is too good to ignore, we’re Logan fans tonight!

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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