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I usually leave the strikeout props to all of the great others that attack them on a daily basis, but I want in today. Here's my best bet for Saturday night's San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins game.

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Best Bet: Will Sean Manaea Catch the Marlins Fishing?

Padres vs. Marlins Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 7, 2022
  • Game Time: 8:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click Here for Padres vs Marlins Odds

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Padres vs. Marlins Total Runs Movement

San Diego Padres vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

1u - Sean Manaea Over 5.5 K’s (-130) (Bet $130 to win $100)

*Odds Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing*

This line just seems off by a strikeout. I had this one down as 6.5 so seeing 5.5 just doesn’t make sense to me. Manaea is 4/5 on this prop with the only miss being a hook against the Dodgers who can knock any pitcher out of the game at any time. Manaea is a great talent, now that he’s out of Oakland he can possibly play in some meaningful games and show the world just how good he is. Although his ERA has never been much better than high 3’s or low 4’s, I’ve always thought he had nasty stuff when I’ve watched him pitch. So why am I confident he fans at least 6 again?

Let's talk about who he’s going against, the Marlins. Miami is only batting .200 against lefties this season in 195 at-bats. Furthermore, they are striking out the 8th most in the MLB. Robbie Ray has 8 K’s, Patrick Corbin had 8 K’s and Carlos Rodon has 12 K’s against this Marlins team. What do they all have in common? Lefties who Marlins looked clueless hitting against. All we need is 6, just one per inning, and go get 18 outs. I really think this bet value and think he has a better chance of 7+ than he does of 5 or below. The inexperience the Marlins have against him should play into our favor as well as they’ve only garnered 7 total plate appearances against Sean lifetime.

This just seems like a bad number, the matchup is ideal and the hit rate is great. Only paying for -130 for 5.5 when the number should be 6.5 is something I will do 11/10 times. The Marlins just can't hit lefties and they get a dang good one tonight. Manaea's pitching at home doesn’t play a major factor in this decision as he’s about the same in his splits but he has gotten his bad home start out of the way this year and I can’t imagine him having multiple while the season is still this young. I feel great about this bet and you should too. Let's stay hot!

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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