Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Best Bet: Will the Diamondbacks Bats Get Hot Early?
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Best Bet: Will the Diamondbacks Bats Get Hot Early?
The Diamondbacks and Marlins will battle for game two of the series tonight in Chase Field, with the first pitch at 9:40 EST. The Diamondbacks were able to stave off the Marlins in game one by keeping Miami's bats cold. Can the Desert Snakes do it again?
Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: May 10, 2022
- Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
Click here for Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Prediction
Taking the mound for the Diamondbacks tonight will be Madison Bumgarner. The three-time World Series-winning pitcher looked like he may have been losing it after joining the Dbacks in 2020, but it appears he is back to his old self this season. Bumgarner has a 1.5 earned run average over his first six starts and has yet to allow more than one earned run in a start. He hasn't been pitching against cakes either. He has started against the Padres, Astros, Mets, and Cardinals with only two "easier" starts and gave up three combined runs in those four starts against dangerous lineups over eighteen innings. It's not luck either. Bumgarner has made a few changes that have helped.
Bumgarner increased his cutter usage from 34% in 2021 to 52% so far in 2022. This has been his best pitch for grounders, as the average launch angle of his cutter has been 11 degrees. He has also been pitching every pitch in his arsenal with more velocity than last year, but that's probably because we're early in the season, and his arm is not as fatigued.
The Diamondbacks bats have finally woken up as well. The Dbacks are 6-2 in May with a .247 batting average, compared to a worse .181 batting average and 10-12 record in April. The Dbacks are also facing a pitcher they've seen before, and the last time they faced Jesus Luzardo, they put up five runs in 2.2 innings on him.
The Marlins had a decent start to the year, going 12-8 in April and some series wins against tough teams. May has been a different story. In May, the Marlins are 1-8 and have struggled to keep their bats hot. Their batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage have all seen a drop-off in May so far, and besides an 8-0 win over the Padres on May 7th, their offense has scored over four runs in one game. The Marlins have also seen Bumgarner before but recently haven't had much success. Skipping the last start, since Bumgarner was ejected after the first inning, the previous two starts against the Marlins, Bumgarner went seven innings with zero earned runs and six innings with one earned run.
The Dbacks and Marlins have met four times so far this season, and the Diamondbacks have been leading or tied after five innings in all four and have won all four games. The Dbacks have also been dominant in the first half of this season against the rest of the league.
The Dbacks have been the most profitable team in the MLB on the first-five run line with a 20-10 record and 30% ROI. They're also 22-8, covering the +.5 over their 30 games. The Marlins are 3-6-3 on the first-five moneyline this season on the road, so 3-9 covering the -.5 first-five run line. The Dbacks being the dog and opening an opportunity to get them with a half a run as the most profitable team in the first half so far this season is a great spot. Plus, we're backing a veteran pitcher who may finally be seeing some progress after a few rough seasons but has proven to be dominant over the first ten years of his career and has yet to allow more than one run in a start this year. Bumgarner may see some regression in this start, but if he can keep the Marlins to three runs or less through five, I like the Dbacks to hold their end of the bargain and score three or more now that their bats have woken up in May. Take the dog on the run line in the first half in Chase Field tonight.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Best Bet
Pick: Diamondbacks First Five +.5 @ -130 (Bet $130 to win $100)
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.