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We want boring baseball tonight! We’re taking an under again. Here's my best bet for Tuesday night's Arizona Diamondbacks and Miami Marlins game down in the desert.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Prediction: Should We Believe in Madison Bumgarner?

Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: May 10, 2022
  • Game Time: 9:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

Click here for Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Odds

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Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Run Total Movement

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

1u - Miami Marlins Under 2.5 Team Total Runs - First 5 Innings (-145) (Bet $145 to Win $100)

*Odds Available at DraftKings at Time of Publishing*

This number just feels high. Perhaps I’m underestimating the Marlins but they are averaging 3.93 runs per game which is 18th in the league. If they are averaging less than 4 runs a game it’s a lot to ask for 3 in the first half. The Marlins are significantly worse against left-handed pitching as well. Miami is batting .212 against southpaws and we all know Bumgarner is one of the most legendary lefties of all time. I just don’t see 3 runs here that quickly.

Bumgarner just played against this same Miami team the last start but got ejected after one inning. It’s not a good sign that he gave up a run in that lone inning but I’m expecting him to come out motivated and take care of business. This year, Bumgarner has not allowed more than 1 run in all 6 starts. That obviously won’t last but I think it goes at least one more tonight. If he gives up exactly 2 we can win a bet on his worst start of the season, bets like this I always love. How often can you win a bet banking on someone who has their worst start of the year and he still does enough to cash you?

Bumgarner has allowed 14 hits in 66 at-bats against these Marlins which is only a .212 batting average. Funny enough, that’s the same number that Miami is hitting lefties this year. The more important stat is that Madison has only allowed 2 runs in those 66 at-bats. This line is flat-out bad and like my other plays of the day, I will gladly drink the juice on it. Let’s not overthink things and take good plays when we see them. Bumgarner has always been a better home pitcher as well, every sign points to Miami failing to score 3+ runs in the first 5 innings.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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