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The Miami Marlins take on the Arizona Diamondbacks today for the final game in their series. Can the Diamondbacks secure back-to-back sweeps against the Marlins? Ben Rajavuori breaks down the game.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Prediction: Will the D-Backs Continue to Dominate the Marlins?

The Marlins and Diamondbacks will square off in a day game today starting at 3:40 EST, with the Diamondbacks looking to secure back-to-back sweeps against the Marlins to start the year. The Diamondbacks won all three in the series on the road earlier in May and now have the opportunity to repeat the sweep at home. Can the Diamondbacks continue their dominance over the Marlins? Here is my pick, prediction, and the odds for the Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami Marlins game.

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Diamondbacks vs. Marlins Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: May 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 3:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: ESPN+

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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Prediction

Yesterday, I took the Diamondbacks on the first five +.5, and today I am going right back to it but with the moneyline. The Diamondbacks broke above .500 early in May and haven't looked back since. They are one of the hotter teams in the MLB and are 8-2 over their last ten. Much of this success can be attributed to the starting pitching rotation. The starters have done excellent work and have been the most profitable team in the MLB on the first five-inning lines. The D-Backs are now an MLB-leading 21-10 to the first-half run line, good for 31.2% ROI.

One person who has been integral to this success has been Merrill Kelly. The D-Backs are 4-2 in Kelly's starts, with the two losses coming against the Dodgers and Padres. Kelly's only start in which he allowed more than one run was against the Dodgers when he went six innings with three earned runs. He has allowed one run or less in five of his six starts.

Kelly's numbers have improved due to a change to his pitch arsenal. Kelly was working heavily behind his fastball in 2021, and teams were batting .311 off it. In the offseason, Kelly worked on improving his changeup and cutter and now has a versatile arsenal that involves his fastball less. Opponents are batting .179 off his changeup, which he throws 23% of the time, and this increase in other pitch usage has lowered the batting average off his fastball from .311 to .241. Kelly is also fourth in the MLB in FIP (Field Independent Pitching), only behind Dylan Cease, Carlos Rodon, and Kevin Gausman.

The D-Back hitters are also giving more run support to their pitchers in May than they were in April. The Dbacks have 45 runs over nine games in May, and they only had 68 runs over 22 games in April. 3.09 runs per game in April compared to 5 runs per game in May. They are batting .248 in May compared to .181 in April. They have dominated Marlins pitching and have only scored less than five runs in one of their five games against the Marlins this year.

The D-Backs are 10-3 in their last 13 home games against the Marlins and have won all five meetings this year. They have also been leading after five in every game against the Marlins this year. Now, the lowest FIP pitcher on the team, who has only allowed over one run in one start this year, will take the mound against a struggling Marlins team. The Marlins are in a funk and are 1-9 in May. Sandy Alcantara is a decent pitcher, but the D-Backs are hot right now, and I'm not going to pass up a small number on the most profitable team on the first five-line in the MLB. Take the D-Backs to sweep the Marlins and lead after five in the process.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks F5 Innings ML @ -115 (Bet $115 to win $100)

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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