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This bet is unlike me but I’m trusting a player I know will eventually have regression to beyond his means one more time at least. Here's my best for Wednesday night's St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles game.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles Best Bet: Can Miles Mikolas Remain Hot and Dominate the O's Bats?

Here is our prediction and odds for tonight's Cardinals vs. Orioles game.

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Cardinals vs. Orioles Start Time and Where to Watch

  • Date: May 11, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:45 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Cardinals vs. Orioles Total Runs Movement

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Baltimore Orioles Prediction

1u - Miles Mikolas Under 2.5 Earned Runs (-130) (Bet $130 to win $100)

*Odds Available at Caesars at Time of Publishing*

Miles Mikolas has been absolutely spectacular. The man holds a 1.53 ERA and has been dominating the competition. We all know that a 1.53 ERA isn’t sustainable in the long term but as for tonight we just need him to allow 2 in maybe 6 innings or so. Mikolas is always significantly better at home and the Orioles have been brutal in the road. Baltimore is 4-10 on the road as opposed to their 9-7 home record. Both Miles performing better at home and Baltimore being an awful away team are great signs he keeps the hot streak alive tonight.

Much like many other bets of this kind, the lines are inconsistent. The first five-inning total runs prop for Baltimore is 1.5 with no juice on either side. Mikolas is projected to go just one additional inning so adding a whole run for just one inning would seem like we’re getting value on the under here. Despite Baltimore's positive record at home they still only average 3.57 runs a game due to how bad they are on the road. That is the 6th worst amount of runs a game in the league and they don’t catch a break tonight against the pitcher with the 6th best ERA in the MLB.

Mikolas doesn’t have practically any experience against these Baltimore bats but that should be a benefit for him. Mikolas has pitched 34.1 innings pitched and has only allowed 6 earned runs all season. He is only allowing 1 run in just short of every six innings, Baltimore shouldn’t be the first team to expose him. Mikolas will get bumped into the 2’s or 3’s at some point for ERA but tonight doesn’t look like it. I think there’s great value in the over 1.5 F5 runs for Baltimore and u2.5 Mikolas earned runs for the people who love middling. Allowing 2 is something very possible for him as Baltimore does hit righties better than lefties.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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