Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can We Count on the Starting Pitching?
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction: Can We Count on the Starting Pitching?
Despite last night’s 9-7 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies in the series opener, the Los Angeles Dodgers’ .769 winning percentage at home is the best in the National League. However, they have played just 13 games at home, the least of any team in the National League.
The Dodgers have shown the vulnerability of late, losing two of three to Pittsburgh before falling to the Phillies. Meanwhile, Philadelphia took two out of three from Seattle and is suddenly within striking distance of a .500 record at 15-17.
Will the Dodgers get back to their winning ways in tonight’s second game of an eight-game homestand? But, more importantly, will each team’s offense show up as they did in the opener? Read on for our best play and odds in the second game of the series between the Phillies and Dodgers.
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Dodgers vs. Phillies Start Time and Where to Watch
- Date: May 13, 2022
- Game Time: 10:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Run Total Movement
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
Philadelphia’s Kyle Gibson (3-1, 2.94) has been arguably the team’s most steady pitcher. Gibson’s 1.069 WHIP is on pace to be the best of his career, as is his 30.8% hard-hit percentage is nearly 10% lower than his career average. Gibson is also getting ground balls at the highest rate of his career (55.4%) and has a ground ball to fly ball ratio of 1.28.
Gibson will have to deal with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman, who were red-hot entering this series, but was cooled off for a combined 1-for-9 effort by Zack Wheeler and five relievers. Entering the series, Betts was batting .300 (9-for-30) with two home runs and seven RBI in his previous seven games), while Freeman was hitting .375 (9-for-24)in that same span.
Clayton Kershaw (4-0, 1.80) has not finished better than eighth in the Cy Young voting in any of the last five seasons, but that looks like it will change so far this year. Outside of a start against Atlanta, where he allowed four runs, Kershaw has allowed just two earned runs in his 25 other innings combined.
Kershaw passed Don Sutton for the most strikeouts in Dodgers history earlier this season. In addition, he is on pace for his lowest BB/9 rate (0.9) and HR/9 rate (0.6) since 2016. He has a career .714 winning percentage and has pitched to a 2.22 ERA in 196 career starts at Dodger Stadium. Coincidentally, the Phillies are the only team that Kershaw is under .500 against for his career, going 4-6 with a 2.76 ERA in 16 career starts against them. He is looking for just his second win against them since 2017.
The under is 6-0 in Gibson’s last six starts as an underdog. In addition, the under is 7-2 in Los Angeles’ previous nine games vs. a right-handed starting pitcher and is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in Los Angeles between these teams. Many will be quick to fire on the over after 16 combined runs were scored in the opener, but we like the contrarian play of the under and believe Gibson and Kershaw are again due for solid efforts.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick
- Under 7.5 Runs (-105) (Bet $105 to Win $100)
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