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The Blue Jays and Rays will kick off a three-game series from Tropicana Field tonight. Can the Blue Jays end their skid tonight? Ben Rajavuori breaks down the game.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Pick: Can The Blue Jays End Their Skid Tonight?

The Blue Jays and Rays will kick off a three-game series from Tropicana Field tonight in a series the Jays need to win to get some momentum back. The Blue Jays are coming off a sweep on the road to the Yankees and have lost four in a row. The Rays, meanwhile, are coming off a series loss after taking one of three games in Anaheim. Now, the Rays are back at home, where they are 9-7 on the year. Can the Jays end their skid, or will the Rays dominate at home? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Friday’s game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays.

Rays vs. Blue Jays Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 13, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSSUN, SNET-1

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Rays vs. Blue Jays Total Runs Movement

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Kevin Gausman is one of my favorite pitchers, and I feel he isn't talked about enough. The only start he has allowed more than two runs in was his first start of the year, and he has looked dominant, as usual, since. Gausman is entering his tenth season in the league, and the Jays are the fifth team he has played for. What's most impressive about Gausman is his FIP (Field Independent Pitching). Gausman is first overall in the MLB this year with a .86 FIP so far and is above Carlos Rodon, Pablo Lopez, and Clayton Kershaw in this category. FIP is important because it eliminates the defense and shows a pitcher's numbers based on only things in his control, like walks, strikeouts, and such, while excluding balls put in play.

Gausman's command is incredible. Gausman has just one walk over his first six starts for a .7% BB rate. He also has a 31.3% strikeout rate, giving him a 46/1 K/BB rate. The sample size is small since he's only started six games this season so far. However, it's still impressive considering he has started against the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros, and Guardians (first in MLB in batting average vs. right-handed pitching).

Drew Rasmussen is impressive as well, but he hasn't faced the same caliber of teams as Gausman. The Blue Jays are also the scariest lineup Rasmussen will have faced this season. The Jays also have their lineup almost 100% healthy now that George Springer and Teoscar Hernandez are back.

I like that the Jays are only 17-15 right now and are coming off a sweep to the Yankees because it's given us a better number to bet them at. The Jays have one of the best lineups in the league when healthy, and tonight they will work behind their best pitcher in the rotation (between Gausman and Manoah, but I think Gausman is best in the long run).

I like the first five today because the Rays bullpen is better than the Jays, and the starting pitching matchup favors the Jays. This year, the Jays are 13-9-9 on the F5 line, and the Rays are 13-11-7. However, the Rays are barely above .500 on the F5 line at home at 7-6-3 and now face the lowest FIP pitcher in the league and one of the top lineups behind him as well. The Jays have been underperforming lately, but I like this spot for them to start the series off right on the road and lead after five innings.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Pick: Blue Jays F5 ML @ -135 (Bet $135 to win $100)

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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