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The Reds completed an extremely rare feat on Sunday as they threw a no-hitter and still somehow lost the game. This speaks to their struggles as a team this season, but will it continue tonight against the Guardians? Let's break it down.

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Best Bet: Will the Reds Continue to Struggle?

The Reds come into this game as the worst team in the league. They simply just do not have the talent to compete for this year which mainly stems from a lack of talent in the pitching department. Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Tuesday's game between the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds.

Guardians vs. Reds Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 17, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSGL, BSMW, MLB Extra Innings

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

The Reds are dead last in the league with a team ERA of 6.04 which is a full run worse than the team right behind them at the Nationals are second to last with a team ERA of 4.98. While their pitching staff as a whole has been pretty bad, tonight they are starting young prospect Connor Overton who comes into this game with a 1-0 record and an impressive 1.59 ERA. These are very solid stats so far but let's look at who he faced.

He has three starts this season and two have come against the Pirates, who are one of the worst hitting teams in the league. Overton was solid in his appearances against Pittsburgh, but he does not have overpowering stuff and has a low strikeout rate. He has only managed eight total strikeouts in 17 innings this season and has also struggled with his control, as he has issued six walks and gone deep into a lot of counts as well. The Guardians are a completely different lineup compared to the Pirates, so the overarching question is going to be Can Overton recreate his success against a much tougher opponent? And I believe the answer is No.

In my opinion, Overton is the definition of an average pitcher. He does not have an overpowering fastball, no wipeout slider, not a great curveball, and relies heavily on command and getting weak contact for outs. This was successful against the Pirates in back-to-back starts but I think it will be a much different story tonight against the Guardians. Cleveland is currently third in the league in team batting average as they are hitting .251 as a team and are also in the top 10 in on-base percentage as well. Myles Straw, Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez, and Owen Miller have been one of the most productive top four in the entire league and I think they will be able to feast on Overton's middle-of-the-pack arsenal of pitches tonight.

On the mound for the Guardians will be Zack Plesac, who I think is due for a major back. Plesac got off to a good start this season as he had three straight solid starts against the White Sox, Giants, and Royals but really struggled in his three starts. However, in his last three starts, he faced the Angels, a top offensive team in all of baseball, the Padres, and the White Sox again who got to see him for a second time. Tonight's start will be the worst opponent that Plesac has faced all season and I expect him to have some positive regression tonight. The Guardians as a whole have also played good baseball at home as compared to on the road, as they are 7-5 at home this season and just 9-12 on the road.

The Reds have had similar struggles on the road as they are 4-17 in road games this season with two of those wins coming against the lowly Pirates. With that being said, I am rolling with Guardians F5 ML at -147 and Guardians Full Game -1 at -111 for 1U each as my most confident MLB Picks of the night as I think Cleveland starts this series off with a win.

Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Best Bets

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Article Author


Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.


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