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The Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds will kick off a short, two-game series from Progressive Field in Cleveland tonight. Ben Rajavuori breaks down the game.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction: Can the Guardians Dominate the Reds Again?

The Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds will kick off a short, two-game series from Progressive Field in Cleveland tonight. The Ohio battle will be the second two-game series of the year, with the Guardians sweeping the Reds in the first series on the road back in early April. Can the Guardians repeat the success against the Reds? Or will the Reds steal the first game of the series on the road? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Tuesday's game between the Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds.

Guardians vs. Reds Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 17, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: BSGL, BSMW, MLB Extra Innings

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Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds Prediction

The Guardians are happy to be getting another series at home finally. They have played just 12 games at home and 21 on the road. Their home games have been against some tough teams as well. The Giants series at home have been against the Giants, White Sox, Padres, and Blue Jays. Despite playing some of the best teams in the league, the Guardians have held their own at home and have a 7-5 record while batting .260.

The Guardians lineup has also dominated right-handed pitching. The Guardians lineup is first overall in the MLB against right-handed pitching with a .267 batting average and .759 OPS. The Reds, conversely, have been abysmal on the road.

The Reds are 4-17 on the road and hit a new low in the previous game when they pitched a no-hitter against the Pirates and still lost the game 0-1 somehow. This has been the theme for the Reds this year. They are second-last in the MLB with a .193 batting average on the road, just above the Detroit Tigers.

The Reds starter Connor Overton has pitched well to start the year, but I think his numbers are due for some regression. He has a 1.59 earned run average, which is impressive, but he's only had two starts this year, and two were against the Pirates. Overton had an 8.31 ERA with the Pirates last year over his five games of pitching and a 9 ERA on the road. Now, he faces the number-one batting team versus righties this year.

Zach Plesac hasn't been an all-star by any means to start the season, but he's a tested pitcher in his fourth year in the league. He has a 3.71 ERA at home, and he has seen the Reds before, allowing seven runs over 20.1 innings of work for a 3.10 ERA. Overton may have the lower ERA in 2022, but I think Plesac will have the better outing tonight in this matchup.

The bullpen advantage also favors the Guardians tonight. The Reds have one of the worst bullpens in the league. They are second-worst behind the Rockies with a .493 average ERA. On the other hand, the Guardians have a respectable 3.44 bullpen ERA, and those numbers improve at home.

The Guardians have shown to be a difficult team to beat at home, going 7-5 against some of the toughest teams in the league. Now, they face the worst road team in the MLB, who they also swept earlier in the year. The Reds appeared to have some momentum going early in May, but nearly all that success came against the Pirates. The Guardians are better than their record suggests, and a win tonight gets them to .500. Back the Guardians here at home.

Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds Pick

Pick: Guardians ML @ -152 (Bet $152 to win $100)

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Article Author


Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.


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