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MLB expert and handicapper Jason Radowitz is here with his prediction and pick for Wednesday night's rubber match between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros at Fenway Park.

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Prediction: Will We See Another High Scoring Affair at Fenway?

Last night, the Houston Astros went on a slugfest, defeating the Boston Red Sox, 13-4. Despite the nine-run win, the game only counts as one win. And since the Red Sox won the first game of the series, Boston still has a chance to win the rubber match of a three-game series and defeat the Astros once and for all.

The Astros are in a much better position than the Red Sox when it comes down to it between records. However, it's still early on in the season. If the Red Sox can earn a series win over the Astros, that could help their confidence moving forward. Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Wednesday's game between the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros.

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Red Sox vs. Astros Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 18, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: NESN, ATTH

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Red Sox vs. Astros Injury Report

Red Sox

None of Importance


Out: OF Jake Meyers (Shoulder)

Red Sox vs. Astros Total Movement

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Prediction

To get the series win, the Red Sox will pitch Nick Pivetta. Pivetta has a 1-4 record with a 5.08 ERA. That's not good. However, he's only allowed one run in his last 13 innings pitched. Things are starting to come together for the right-hander.

In the last 30 days, Pivetta has had a 4.59 xFIP with 24.5% strikeouts. He’s still giving up 26% of line drives and earning just 34.2% of ground balls. Things still aren't perfect. But he’s been able to limit ISO power numbers and has also kept wOBA numbers down in the last 30 days. He's been above average in those categories.

The Astros' lineup, on the other hand, has a .212 ISO with a .335 wOBA. The Astros are one of the hottest offenses in the league and have only struck out 20.2% of the time in the last 30 days against righties. Plus, the Astros are working counts and walking 11.2% of the time in the same time frame.

The Astros will send out Luis Garcia. Like Pivetta, he's been excellent in May. He’s also allowed just one earned run in his last two starts. However, unlike Pivetta, Garcia is working the put-away stuff as he has struck out nine batters in two straight games while earning 30.8% strikeouts in the last 30 days.

The only blemish for Garcia is that he is giving up a little bit of power to righties. But other than that, Garcia has been hard to score against.

The good news for Garcia is that the Red Sox aren’t dominating righties at all lately. The projected lineup has an ISO of .127 with a wOBA of .302 in the last 30 days. The only two threats when it comes to power are Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez. Xander Bogaerts is another player that can get on base at a higher rate against righties. Outside of these three bats, the Red Sox are just inconsistently bad against righties.

With two pitchers having momentum coming into this game, I'll grab the under 9. We're used to seeing 6.5 and 7 numbers. Now I'm seeing a nine between two pitchers that have allowed two earned runs combined in their last four starts combined.

Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astros Pick

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Article Author


Jason grew up an avid sports fan. His passion for sports writing grew in high school and he developed a blog that was strictly for New York Sports. From his work, you will quickly realize that he loves looking at games from an analytical and numbers perspective and hopes to provide you with that same perspective in his articles.


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