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Hits allowed is a market that has been very profitable for us, let's keep it that way! Here's my best bet for today's Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals matchup. We are zoning in on Nationals starting pitcher Josiah Gray.

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Best Bet: Can Miami Make Josiah Gray Pay?

Here is our prediction, player prop, and odds for tonight's Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals game.

Marlins vs. Nationals Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 18, 2022
  • Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Marlins vs. Nationals Line Movement

Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Prediction

1u - Josiah Gray Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (-130) (Bet $130 to win $100)

*Odds Available at FanDuel at Time of Publishing*

This feels a hit short for me. I think at 5.5 I would feel like this is a 50/50 but at 4.5 I love this. Gray is still so young but he has been given opportunities to remain in games and fight through adversity. Gray has allowed 5+ hits in 4/7 games but more important than that is the matchup tonight. The Miami Marlins won't jump off the page and scare you but when you take a deep dive there are certainly reasons to believe that they will have their way with Josiah tonight.

Miami has some crazy splits, against lefties. They bat an atrocious .206 but against righties, they hit an astounding .256. They get hits 5% more of the time against right-handed pitching. Gray has struggled against Miami specifically in his career. He has allowed 18 hits in his three games against Miami and has allowed 5, 6, and 7 hits. His most recent start was the 7 hits allowed so he isn’t trending in the right direction.

Gray has so much time to improve but this number just doesn’t feel priced right. Gray has pitched at least 80 pitches in all 7 starts, so Miami will have plenty of opportunities to get to five hits on him. Miami has hit much better right-handed pitching for 5+ hits against guys such as Woodruff, Burnes, Kelly, and Webb. The Marlins are a sneaky good hitting team and Gray can’t figure them out, I dig this one.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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