Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction: Can We Count on Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays?
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction: Can We Count on Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays?
The Blue Jays and Mariners will close out a three-game series from the Rogers Centre in Toronto tonight. The Blue Jays have handily taken the first two games by scores of 6-2 and 3-0. Now, they have the most juice on today's moneyline after being -165 favorites in the first game and -145 last night. They are -250 on the moneyline tonight and are heavily favored to sweep the series. Can the Mariners avoid the sweep? Or will the Jays take another one with ease? Here is my prediction and odds for tonight's Blue Jays and Mariners game.
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: May 18, 2022
- Game Time: 7:07 pm ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN+
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Blue Jays vs. Mariners Line Movement
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction
The Blue Jays may finally be coming to form. The Jays have one of the scariest lineups on paper, and experts predicted that the Jays would make a run at the World Series before the season started. Yet, before this series, they were 18-17 and barely getting by above .500. They have won three of their last four, all by multiple runs, and this series seems to be the restart at home that they needed. The Jays were coming off a long road trip before this series, which included being swept by the Yankees and losing three of four to the Guardians. The Jays have always been better at home, which has continued this year.
Rogers Centre hasn't been re-opened for long, but the Jays have played well there in its short life since the renovations. The Jays are batting .250 at home with a .742 OPS compared to a .221 and .624 OPS on the road.
The Jays were able to win the first two games of this series behind two of their weaker starters in the rotation and now get one of their strongest arms on the bump today. Kevin Gausman has been stellar this year, and the Jays are 5-2 behind him on the year. Gausman is 13th in the MLB with a 2.4 ERA, and he is first overall in all of pitching in FIP at .93 (Field Independent Pitching). The second isn't even close, with Carlos Rodon coming in with a 1.73 FIP. Gausman has a nasty splitter that he combines with his fastball, which has gotten him many ground balls. His command has also been on point. Gausman has just two walks in 45 innings pitched, and with 54 strikeouts, he has a 27 K/BB rate (that's really, really good).
The Mariners had an excellent start to the year, going 11-5 over their first 16 games. Since then, they have gone 5-15 and are batting .226 in May. Their numbers also drop significantly on the road. They are 9-7 at home with a .255 batting average, compared to 7-14 on the road with a .212 batting average. They have also played better in day games than night games. The Mariners are 8-5 in day games with a .246 batting average, compared to an 8-16 record at night with a .222 batting average. This is an away game at night, so the worst-case scenario for the Mariners.
The Mariners outfield is also banged up. Both Mitch Haniger and Kyle Lewis are out, which leaves the outfield thin for Seattle. They'll undoubtedly need offense in this one as they face a pitcher they have had little success against. In the last three starts against Gausman, the Mariners scored one run over 6.2 innings, one run over 6 innings, and two runs over 7 innings.
The Blue Jays and Mariners are trending in opposite directions. The Jays appear to be progressing and showing us the scary lineup they are. They also get to hit behind one of their strongest starters tonight. The moneyline is far too juicy to make a play on, but the run line has excellent value, and I think the Jays close this series strong after two outstanding performances in the first two games of the series.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners Pick
- Blue Jays -1.5 (-110) (Bet $110 to Win $100)
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.