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The Mariners are coming off a very impressive win against the Blue Jays as nearly +200 underdogs yesterday and the Red Sox come into this series fresh off a series win vs the Red-Hot Astros. Who will prevail in Game 1 tonight? Let's break it down.
ANALYSIS

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Top Pick: Can Rafael Devers and the Red Sox Roll?

The Red Sox have been a very tricky team to handicap all season but overall, they have been playing much better over the past few weeks. They have either won or tied their past three series against some stiff competition including the Braves, Rangers, and Astros. In their last series against the Astros, it was their pitching that led them to a series win as Pivetta threw a gem in Game 3 and the Bullpen held on in-game to take two of three from Houston.

Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Thursday's game between the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners.

Red Sox vs. Mariners Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: May 19, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: MLB.TV

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Red Sox vs. Mariners Line Movement

Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction

Tonight, the Sox will rely heavily on starter Rich Hill who is having a very solid season. On the year he is 1-1 with a very impressive 2.89 ERA. Hill has faced some very weak offensive teams this year including the Orioles, Tigers, and Rangers, and has done very well against those teams which leads me to believe that he will have success again tonight against the Mariners who are a well below-average offensive team.

The Mariners have struggled as a whole to score runs but they have struggled even more away from home as they come into this game with an 8-14 record on the road. Their team average on the road is just .215 compared to .255 at home and their OBP/Slugging percentage as a team is also dramatically lower on the road. I think Rich Hill will be able to hold them down through the first 3-5 innings before handing the ball off to Tanner Houck or another member of the Red Sox pen so the ultimate question is, Will the Red Sox be able to score off of highly touted prospect George Kirby? I believe the answer is Yes.

Kirby has some electric stuff and has been very impressive through two starts against the Rays and the Mets. He threw six scoreless innings against the Rays and only allowed one earned run against the Mets so Kirby has put up numbers against some very tough teams to start his career, but I believe he is due for some regression tonight. In his limited splits, Kirby has really struggled to get right-handed hitters out as righties are 5-10 including two extra-base hits off of him to this point. Reverse splits for a pitcher aren't too common but it may be a trend emerging against Kirby.

Tonight, he will have to navigate a lineup with JD Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Trevor Story, and Kike Hernandez. All very solid and experienced right-handed hitters who have the potential to do damage off Kirby. Not to mention their best hitter, Rafael Devers who is a superstar in this league, and Alex Verdugo who is always a tough out from the left side. Kirby might have better stuff than Hill from a pitching perspective, but Hill has way more experience and will be facing an inferior lineup.

I think the Red Sox are going to hit Kirby early and I expect a lot of traffic on the base paths for them through the first few innings to jump out to an early lead. With that being said, I am rolling with Red Sox F5 ML at -112 and Red Sox Full Game ML at -119 for 1U each as my most confident MLB Picks of the night.

Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners Pick

Article Author

NCAABNBAMLB

Joey has spent the last 6+ years betting on sports with a focus on basketball and baseball. Basketball is his main focus, and not many people know more about mid-major basketball than him. Whether you need advice on a Saturday night primetime game or a Tuesday night back-alley SWAC/MEAC game, Joey is your man.

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