Thursday's Best MLB Bet: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday's Best MLB Bet: Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
The Red Sox and Mariners will kick off a four-game series from Fenway Park in Boston tonight in a series the Red Sox desperately needs. The Red Sox are now 15-22 on the season despite winning their previous series against the Astros. The Mariners are traveling to Boston fresh off a win against the Blue Jays that saved them from getting swept in Toronto. So what's the best prop play for this series opener tonight? Here are our picks, predictions, and odds for Thursday's game between the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners.
Red Sox vs. Mariners Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds
- Date: May 19, 2022
- Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
- Where to Watch: MLB.TV
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Red Sox vs. Mariners Line Movement
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Prediction
Rich Hill will be taking the mound for the Red Sox tonight, and despite being "over the hill," he is having an excellent 2022 season. Hill has a 2.89 earned run average on the season and has only two earned runs over his last 19 innings pitched.
More impressive is Hill's leadoff dominance this season. Hill has given up just four hits over his first six leadoff innings, and opponents are batting just .138 off Hill in leadoff innings. The Mariners also have been hitting much worse against left-handed pitching this season. The Mariners are hitting just .204 off lefties compared to .243 off righties. There are a few lefty-on-lefty matchups at the top of the lineup as well in Adam Frazier and Jesse Winker that will favor Rich Hill. The Mariners have also been one of the worst teams at scoring in the first inning on the road. Seattle has only scored in the first inning in 18% of away games, less than one out of every five games.
The top of the Red Sox order is scary, and they are facing the youngster George Kirby. Kirby has pitched excellent in his first two starts, but your first start ever in a night game in Fenway Park will never be an easy start as the visitor. Kirby's numbers may be due for a bit of regression as well. Kirby had 7.2 innings pitched in spring training this year over three games and allowed six runs with nine hits and two walks. Kirby also throws his fastball 53% of the time, and the top of the Red Sox order eats fastballs alive. The Red Sox order goes as follows:
- Kike Hernandez (.182)
- Rafael Devers (.340)
- J.D. Martinez (.325)
- Xander Bogaerts (.336)
- Alex Verdugo (.206)
The 2-4 spot for the Red Sox are all batting above .300, and two of those bats (Devers and Verdugo) are lefty bats that can crush righties. The Red Sox as a team are hitting righties at a much higher clip than lefties. The Red Sox are averaging .216 against lefties and .242 against righties. Kirby has had two excellent starts to start his MLB career, but I think the top of the Red Sox order can get to him early in this one. I also love that we can get this play at plus money since the Red Sox bat last. There's good value on this prop today, and I think Rich Hill has another good outing, while Kirby may struggle a bit early for the first time in his short MLB career.
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Pick
- Red Sox Score First (+115) (Bet $100 to Win $115)
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Article Author
Ben Rajavuori is a handicapper out of Minneapolis, MN. He has been creating sports content for almost four years now and is an expert in all things NFL, MLB, NBA, UFC, and NCAAB. Ben thrives on diving deep into statistics to find the best angle on every bet. You can follow him on Twitter @WeBeatTheSpread.